After reading commentaries from journalists concerning the Quebec election and the potential this has for another referendum, I want to clear up a misconception. They write as if ROC (Rest of Canada) exists. It doesn’t.
Let me state my bias. I am a passionate Canadian. I believe in and love this country. I spent much of my professional life as a deputy minister in British Columbia. I served under five premiers in 10 ministries and attended hundreds of federal-provincial and first ministers meetings.
I was deputy minister of intergovernmental relations and played a minor role in the Meech Lake discussions.
If the Quebec election produces a Parti Québécois majority — Premier Pauline Marois may turn a minority into a majority on the back of a divisive Clarity Act — then she will set the table carefully before she calls a referendum. Not as charismatic as her predecessors, but perhaps more shrewd.
I believe a vast majority of British Columbians favour Quebec staying in Canada, and Canada staying together, but if Quebec votes to go, British Columbians would say go.
However, as Quebec decides, voters there might reflect on outside, particularly western, views. They are not the Pollyanna version that Marois suggests.
One reason is because there is no ROC, not now, and certainly not after Quebec leaves.
Most British Columbians are probably not paying attention to the election or an inevitable referendum. But after a “yes” vote, I believe the majority would not want to stay in a country where more than half the population lives in Ontario.
In federal-provincial discussions, B.C. and the other western provinces were often aligned with Quebec, disagreeing with Ottawa, Ontario and the rest in the east. At first ministers meetings, I remember former Ontario premier Bill Davis riding out as Captain Canada to save us all with calming words from the rich industrial heartland.
Today, the horse he rode seems much smaller and the messenger not as firmly in the saddle. With Quebec gone, that dynamic tension missing, the West would be left with few allies to prevent a taxing of our resources to fund their social programs. This would be disastrous for our small economy.
I do not believe we would be in favour of Quebec continuing to use the Canadian dollar.
I do not believe we would continue the equalization payments we now pay to provinces east of Saskatchewan — $9 billion last year to Quebec.
I do not believe we will see the sense in living in a country with a hole in the middle.
I do not believe we think Quebec will have automatic membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement. Quebec would have to reapply, since the current agreement is with Canada.
I do believe British Columbians would want to explore an arrangement with Alberta and Saskatchewan. What that would involve, and whether others would be invited into the conversation, is another question.
If Quebec votes to leave, then all bets are off. Things will move quickly. And the destination of all the moving parts is not clear.
Politicians will not speak about any of this. You know the line (I coached it enough): “I will not comment on hypotheticals.” I think our leaders are being too reticent about spelling out some obvious issues, such as the dollar. Tiptoeing around for fear of giving the separatists an issue takes away powerful instruments for use by the federalists in Quebec.
Over the years, I have heard Quebec opine that ROC doesn’t understand. That may be true. But so is the opposite.
If they believe there is something called English Canada, they need to come and walk down Robson Street in Vancouver. The elites in Quebec know this, but it suits the separatist agenda to lump us all together — makes for a better bumper sticker.
Quebec in election mode today should have a clear understanding that Canada is not a monolithic mass waiting patiently. We in the West have no fear over their decision. In some ways, because of the uncertainty these repeated referendums create, we might be better off if they did go.
And Marois needs to know there is no separation-lite, where she could cherry-pick what things she wants to have post-referendum to make her election sound risk-free. If she wants to go, she should just take her share of the debt and leave.
Breaking up Canada will have huge transaction costs. But if we are going to have that put upon us, and incur the costs, then British Columbians will want the outcome to satisfy their interests and not be based on misconceptions in the East.
Bob Plecas spent more than 20 years in the provincial government and worked under six premiers, five of them as a deputy minister.
