Thomas Mulcair has about three years to show the country that he and his unlikely Opposition party have matured enough to run the country.
Good luck with that.
By parliamentary tradition, the next federal election is expected to be called in 2015, as Stephen Harper's Conservatives look to extend their majority government. Those three years between now and then will go by in the blink of an eye for Mulcair, in large part because he has so much to do to develop himself and his party as a viable alternative to the incumbent government.
Since replacing the late Jack Layton as leader of the NDP in March, Mulcair has been on a steep learning curve. For national observers, it has been an unsettling spectacle to watch.
Who can forget his Dutch Disease ramblings, which laid the blame for Canada's manufacturing woes on the shoulders of the oilpatch? It was an overly simplistic take on cause and effect, and one that once again pitted Canadian centrists against the West.
Then, invited to see the oilsands for himself, he used the term "awe-inspiring" to describe them after accepting a helicopter tour.
In a subsequent interview, however, he reiterated his view that stricter environmental regulations need to be put in place. It made him look like he was trying to walk on both sides of the street.
These are rookie errors, but they come from the leader of the official Opposition. If Mulcair is not able to add nuance to his messaging, Canadians will have a hard time seeing him as prime-ministerial material.
It is not surprising that Mulcair is focused on central Canada, because that part of the country has occupied so much of his life. Born in Ottawa to a French-Canadian mother and an Irish-Canadian father, he was a lawyer and professor in Montreal before joining Jean Charest's provincial Liberals, representing a riding in Laval from 1994 to 2007. After a reported dispute between him and Charest over a cabinet demotion, Mulcair ran for the federal NDP in Outremont in 2007.
The NDP considered the combative and principled Quebecer a find, and made him deputy leader jointly with Libby Davis. It was an easy job - in the unofficial opposition.
As the feisty third party, the NDP has always delivered a refreshing flair to the grey and dismal goings-on of Parliament. But in the last federal election, the perpetual also-ran party found itself thrust into the spotlight, beneficiaries of the collapse of the federal Liberals under Michael Ignatieff.
Suddenly, for the first time in Canadian history, this third-place party had become a contender, the left-wing alternative to the right-wing party in power. Much of that popularity appeared to be built on Layton's personal charisma, and it was almost certain that when Layton died, his replacement would have very big shoes to fill. And, sure enough, Mulcair is finding the road is not easy.
He is provocative. Combative. Smart and strategic. And he's not Jack Layton.
Layton won the hearts of Canadians through his sincerity, inclusiveness and personal charm. Mulcair's prickly approach, on the other hand, puts at risk some of the goodwill Layton worked so hard to earn.
His progress since being elected NDP leader in March has divided the pundits, and he's gotten a pretty rough ride from media commentators.
In fairness, the NDP faithful knew they could not pull another Jack Layton out of a hat. They knew the next leader would have to be his own person. And while his charm may not match his predecessor, Mulcair's toughness - earned in the rough-andtumble political sphere of Quebec - is a valuable asset in any would-be prime minister. Didn't we admire that very quality in Jean Chrétien, the street-brawler from Shawinigan?
Thank our lucky stars Mulcair has those three years. Let's hope he uses them to the fullest. He needs to travel the country, get to know all those regions he hasn't spent much time in and learn how Canadians outside of Ontario and Quebec think and feel.
Mostly, he has to listen and learn before he barks.
Can Mulcair meet the daunting task at hand and turn his party into a true challenger to the Conservative juggernaut? It's a tall order, no matter what your leadership style. Mulcair has precious little time to prove his mettle.
Doug Firby is editor-in-chief and national affairs columnist for Troy Media (troymedia.com).
