Failing an 11th-hour entry into the Liberal leadership race by some unlikely giant-killer - say, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney or Clark Kent - Justin Trudeau is the guy. He will win the leadership handily and seek to follow in his father's footsteps.
It may be a lively contest; much ink will be spilled; but the outcome is not in doubt. That's because of Trudeau's name, but also his personal popularity, fluency in both official languages, youth, oratorical skills, social media following and looks. Once he's in, it's over. Unless, of course, he self-immolates.
So what are the risks and rewards of a Trudeau dynasty for the Liberal party, for the ruling Conservatives and for the New Democrats?
For the Liberals, near-term, their leadership-selection process falls into disarray, as candidates flee the juggernaut. Few will want to throw a $75,000 admission fee away. More to the point, what donor will want to invest in a doomed campaign?
There may be Grits of the Bay Street variety who decide, for the good of the party, that it cannot be a coronation, and that stalwarts such as Marc Garneau and Denis Coderre must therefore have a shot. But that's a tough sell knowing you're backing, at best, a future industry or environment minister.
But mid-term, whatever the texture of the race, Trudeau will give his party a new lease on life, even if he does little more than needle Prime Minister Stephen Harper and smile for the cameras. That's partly because Harper is now personally vulnerable. Half the population actively dislikes him.
Near-term for the ruling Conservatives, there's happy news: NDP leader Tom Mulcair has a rival in Quebec, which will blunt the opposition leader's advance.
It's divide-and-conquer: Let Trudeau attack Mulcair, and vice versa, over ground Harper no longer really needs anyhow. He has just five seats in Quebec, making the province irrelevant to his majority.
But mid-term, Harper's team has reason to fear Trudeau's charm, his particular appeal in Quebec, Ontario and B.C., and the Liberal party's timetested ability to morph into whatever policy shape best suits its needs at any given time.
Where Trudeau is strongest - likability - Harper is weakest. In year seven headed for 10, time is not on the prime minister's side in this regard.
With Trudeau as his foil, it will be less easy for the PM to cast himself as the dour national bean-counter, too busy with his spreadsheets to bother being human.
The PM's forays at the piano, the blue sweater, the hockey book, are fading in the public consciousness. Whether he wants to or not - clearly he resists this kind of pandering, because we haven't seen it recently even when it obviously would have helped him - he will feel pressure to retrieve Soft Harper from the crypt.
For the New Democrats it's all bad news, near and mid-term. Trudeau's perfect fluency in French, his flair for the dramatic and the boxing match all make him a force to be reckoned with in Quebec, which historically prefers leaders with dash.
So the Conservatives and New Democrats are banking on two things.
First, that Trudeau displays vacuity on policy, offering nothing more than the usual Liberal fare. For a taste of this, simply review coverage of last January's biennial policy conference in Ottawa.
The Grits have been stuck in reverse, policy-wise, since 2005. Many of the party's most active partisans and contributors are baby boomers, for whom little sounds so sweet as a return to the Just Society. If Trudeau yields to this pressure, Harper and Mulcair will have an easier time fending him off.
Second, Trudeau's opponents will parse his every utterance for signs of flakiness, and cast him as a loose cannon, not to be trusted with the serious business of running the nation. Whatever scrutiny he has endured in the past will pale in comparison to what he's about to experience now.
Because he is more strategic than he lets on, Trudeau very likely understands his own vulnerabilities. Therefore, expect to see some policy-heavy speeches, juiced up with personal barbs at Harper, in the early going. And expect to see a more measured and cautious speaking style than we've seen in the past.
