I confess I’m fascinated by the drama surrounding the Sochi Olympics. But not the sporting side of things.
What interests me is the thought of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s place in history hanging in the balance. These are his Games.
If they come off without a hitch, he becomes Vladimir the Great, at least in local legend. On the other hand, if terrorists manage to penetrate security and disrupt the event, he ends up with the sort of reputation Vlad the Impaler enjoys.
Then there is the fact that Putin began life as a KGB thug. Some believe he still is, at heart.
American president George W. Bush famously said he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw the man’s soul. John McCain, the Republican senator who ran for the U.S. presidency in 2008, had a different take: “I looked into Mr. Putin’s eyes and I saw three things: a K and a G and a B.”
Recall also those photos of Putin galloping around on horseback stripped to the waist, Putin hunting bear, Putin dressed in camouflage brandishing an assault rifle, Putin wearing his black belt in judo. You get the idea.
The man isn’t likely to respond in a measured way to a terrorist attack. He’s going to view it as a personal insult and a challenge to his authority.
Equally, the Chechen freedom fighters who have promised to attack the Games cannot be seen to back down. Which means the stakes are sky-high, on both sides.
The Russian army is thought to have 25 divisions at present. You can bet a substantial portion of those forces are deployed around Sochi, with orders to shoot first and ask questions later.
Even so, all it takes is a lunatic with explosives strapped to his chest and the willingness to die for his cause. As we know to our cost, there is no shortage of those. Then what happens?
The First World War began when a Serbian anarchist shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary and his wife. There won’t be a repeat performance on this occasion if terrorists blow up the Olympics.
But you have to think Putin’s response would be well up on the Richter scale of armed incursions.
Of course, he might settle for the kind of precision revenge the Israelis took after 11 of their athletes were killed in a terrorist attack at the 1972 Munich Olympics. Over the following 16 years, the Israeli secret service methodically hunted down those involved in the attack, and assassinated them one by one. They called it “Operation Wrath of God.”
But I wouldn’t count on it. Operation Wrath of Putin might involve all-out military reprisals.
Since the early 1990s, there have already been two wars between the Russian army and Chechen rebels. The latter won the first, and proclaimed their independence. Russia won the second and forcibly brought Chechnya back within the Russian Federation.
If a third were to follow, both sides would be playing for keeps. But while the Chechens would be fighting for their freedom, Putin would be intent on restoring his tarnished fame and honour.
I wouldn’t want to get in the way of either manifestation — Vladimir the Great or Vlad the Impaler.
