No one ever lost in politics by being underestimated, and that’s very much the case with Justin Trudeau. He might not be ready to be prime minister, but neither is he in “over his head,” as the Conservatives have put it in a typically tasteless attack ad.
The Liberal policy convention in Montreal, from today to Sunday, will be an opportunity for Trudeau to demonstrate that the party is united behind his leadership in an environment that stimulates discussion of ideas.
Compared with where they were after the 2011 election, the Liberals have already come a long way. Accustomed to being in government, they were relegated to third-party status for the first time in their history, with only 19 per cent of the vote and 34 seats in the House of Commons. They were out of sight and out of mind. Only the inherent equity of the Liberal brand kept them in the game.
In the 10 months since Trudeau has been their leader, the Liberals have consistently polled in first place. This is not just about the Conservatives being in a deep midterm slump driven by the Senate expense scandal, or the New Democrats being to the left of where the voters are — in the centre. It’s also about Trudeau making the most of his opportunities.
To be sure, he has made a few unforced errors.
But he has struck a resonant chord with his slogan of “hope and hard work.” It’s very smart. The “hope” part taps into a mood for change going into an election year. The “hard work” says he takes nothing for granted.
It’s an interesting part of his narrative that in 2008, he won a contested Liberal nomination in an east-end Montreal riding then held by a popular Bloc Québécois incumbent. Then, when the tide went out for the Liberals in Quebec in 2011, his was one of only six seats they won.
Those two elections, and last year’s leadership campaign, were proving grounds for Trudeau as a retail politician. He’s definitely got game, and it’s not just about the crowds he’s drawing, even in such unlikely places as rural Alberta. It’s equally about how he works a room. He’s personable, accessible and authentic.
The measuring of any political party’s prospects begins with its finances, especially with the public subsidy, once $2 per vote, being phased out by the next election. The Liberals, who have long lagged the Conservatives in donor fundraising, nearly matched them by raising $4.3 million compared with the Tories’ $5.2 million in the fourth quarter of last year. In December alone, the Liberals raised $2.2 million, about two-thirds of it online.
Filling the coffers will not only wean the Liberals off the public subsidy; it will enable them to be competitive with the Conservatives in getting out their message.
Any party’s renewal begins with the leader attracting a strong group of candidates. Trudeau is already building a team of articulate newcomers.
In terms of managing the party’s morale, Trudeau has effectively put an end to the 15-year feud between the Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin camps, the Liberal War of the Roses. The fact that Chrétien and Martin refuse to be in the same room together is their problem, not Trudeau’s, and their supporters have been told to get over it.
Finally, Trudeau is not afraid to surround himself with good people. In a short period of time, he has built a strong team of advisers.
It was impressive how his inner circle kept the secret of his gambit on kicking Liberal senators out of caucus.
There are problems with that, and some of them might surface this weekend. The party’s constitution will have to be amended, since it recognizes Liberal senators as members of caucus and automatic delegates to convention.
But for Trudeau, in his opening and closing keynotes, the challenge will be to set a tone as well as an agenda.
When a party gets to a convention floor, it wants to march. Trudeau’s job is to get them marching.
L. Ian MacDonald is editor of Policy magazine.
