Within milliseconds of the government flashing the green light, interest groups on both sides of the debate hit the send button on their pre-written news releases trumpeting their pre-ordained anger or approval.
Everybody knew it was coming.
The only surprise here is that the federal cabinet took all of the allotted 180 days to issue its thumbs-up news release. The government could have flashed the all-systems-go signal immediately after receiving the stamp of approval from the National Energy Board’s joint review panel back on Dec. 19.
But that would have been unseemly. Ottawa wanted to at least give the appearance it was weighing all the options. And it continued with that cautious veneer on Tuesday with a news release that was measured, almost timorous.
“Today constitutes another step in the process,” Natural Resources Minister Greg Rickford said, making it sound as if Tuesday’s decision was one little baby step, if not one big yawn. Ottawa doesn’t want to appear too eager to get this pipeline built, even though the Harper government is desperate to see construction start.
But Rickford played it cool, pointing out that the pipeline company Enbridge still has to meet the 209 conditions set out in the NEB’s report.
The government sounds so prudent, you’d almost think it was giving its approval reluctantly. But scratch the surface and you’ll find a government that has said Northern Gateway is in the vital interest of Canada.
No, the big question here wasn’t whether the Harper government would approve Northern Gateway. The big question here is will the pipeline ever get built, even with Ottawa’s approval? This might yet be a pipeline to nowhere.
Not because of the NEB’s conditions. There are 209 of them, but none are particularly onerous.
Even though the NEB concluded the project will hurt caribou and grizzly populations along the 1,170-kilometre route and even though a large spill of oilsands bitumen would cause “significant adverse environmental effects,” the report also concluded a major spill is “not likely.”
The report tried to lay environmental concerns to rest, but it steered clear of the First Nations’ constitutional issues, saying bluntly it has “not made any determinations regarding aboriginal rights, including Métis rights, treaty rights or the strength of an aboriginal group’s claim respecting aboriginal rights.”
And right there the project faces a veritable Rocky Mountain range of legal battles from First Nations. And let’s not forget the British Columbia government, which has a list of five conditions to win its approval, which includes the ever-elusive and ill-defined demand that the province receive its fair share of the economic benefits of the pipeline.
Legally, the federal cabinet could ram the pipeline through, but politically, morally and realistically, it needs the approval of a majority of British Columbians. And it needs to win a litany of court cases certain to be placed in its path.
The pipeline is still a pipe dream. But that’s not to say Alberta’s bitumen won’t be flowing to the West Coast one way or another for shipment to China.
Kinder Morgan is moving ahead with plans to twin its Trans Mountain pipeline, which already ships bitumen and crude oil from Alberta to the Lower Mainland. Having an existing right of way gives the Trans Mountain pipeline a major advantage over Northern Gateway, which would have to cross pristine wilderness.
In the end, the government’s approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline might be a moot point. So, too, might be the tactics of opponents promising to stop the pipeline from ever going ahead.
That’s because of the energy industry’s Plan B. If Alberta’s oilsands companies can’t ship more of their bitumen by pipeline, they’ll simply ship more — a lot more — by rail. That should make everyone think twice.
