There’s only one winner in the game of musical chairs, and in the version underway in Nanaimo, it’s going to be the B.C. NDP government.
Recruiting federal MP Sheila Malcolmson (Nanaimo-Ladysmith) to run for the provincial seat that MLA Leonard Krog is vacating for the city’s mayoralty is a big win for Premier John Horgan. On anyone’s list of New Democrats most likely to win, she’s at the top.
And winning the seat is crucial for a minority government with just a two-seat edge.
But as everyone remembers from that birthday party game, there are losers along the way. The most obvious one is federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, presiding over what looks undeniably like an exodus from his caucus.
Malcolmson is the eighth member of his caucus to leave or announce their departure, for one reason or another. There’s still a year before the next election and that count can be expected to rise.
Just when he needs a show of B.C. strength going into his own byelection, in Burnaby, he loses a key team member.
Malcolmson did everything she could to dispel the impression she’s leaving Singh in the lurch.
But it’s obvious — she’s leaving him in the lurch.
“Let me be clear: I love the job I have now. I’m proud Jagmeet Singh is the leader. I love dearly and deeply admire my federal caucus members.”
Despite all that, she’s bolting to the provincial team, for perfectly understandable reasons. Her choice was to carry on with the stalled-out third party in the House of Commons or join a provincial government at the express invitation of the premier.
It probably didn’t take long for her to make up her mind.
Horgan tried to reassure everyone that poaching one of Singh’s highly regarded MPs won’t hurt the federal NDP at all.
He failed.
Horgan broke the bad news to the federal leader a few days ago and on Tuesday tried to suggest that Singh was fine with it.
Said the premier: “He [Singh] knows full well that Sheila’s position in our government strengthens the NDP not just in B.C., but across the country. We are all in this together.”
Singh issued a polite statement about the move, but it doesn’t look as if they’re “all in this together.”
It looks more like “every leader for himself.”
It’s going to take some adroit timing by assorted entities to pull this off without costing taxpayers hundreds of thousands of dollars in a byelection.
Malcolmson is obligated to step down as soon as the provincial byelection to replace Krog is called.
Horgan promised to call it soon enough that there will be a Nanaimo-Ladysmith MLA sitting in the house for the budget speech on Feb. 19.
That means early January at the latest, which means Malcolmson’s federal seat will be vacant from that point on.
The Speaker of the House of Commons will ensure the constituency office will carry on serving the public when she leaves.
The federal Elections Act gives the prime minister 180 days to call a byelection, which suggests he’d have to call one just a matter of months before the general election on Oct. 21, 2019.
But there’s an out that could void the need for such a waste of time. There is no maximum campaign period specified in law. So the byelection could be called with an extended campaign period, to coincide with the general election.
The last move in that extended series of dance steps depends on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau determining that it fits his agenda.
If you’re scoring at home, the proposed lineup change looks liked this: Krog in for departing Nanaimo Mayor Bill McKay, Malcolmson in for Krog, and the Speaker of the House of Commons in for Malcolmson, until next October.
All subject to the other provincial and federal parties not disrupting the plan.
The other people left with nowhere to sit in this game are any Nanaimo New Democrats interested in running in a wide-open nomination contest.
Those are usually left to the ridings to figure out. But the stakes are too high in this one, so Horgan understandably big-footed his way in and invited (read “picked”) Malcolmson.
