Erin O’Toole, the new leader of the federal Tories, says he doesn’t want an election this fall. He believes focusing on Western alienation and rebuilding the economy should be his main priorities.
I respectfully disagree.
Politically speaking, Western alienation is a dry hole. Whoever is behind this movement needs to remember what its forerunner, the Reform party, contributed to conservatism: Four successive Liberal administrations.
But even if there is a nascent uprising here, the Tories cannot afford to be distracted by it. Their centre of attention must be Ontario and Quebec.
As for rebuilding the economy, this is just one of those banalities that new leaders compulsively trot out. Who could disagree?
The real issue O’Toole should be pounding away at is the disastrous state of the country’s finances, ruined in equal measure by the COVID-19 crisis and a spendthrift federal government.
All he need do is read Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s speeches to get a sense of where we’re headed.
Trudeau has announced that when Parliament returns this month, he intends to introduce sweeping changes to our social safety net.
And by that he doesn’t mean tightening it. He means expanding it.
I assume there are two motives here. First, Trudeau wants to keep the NDP on side, a necessity because the new session will lead off with a throne speech. And that demands a vote of confidence, which he can only win with NDP support.
But second, he might also hope to divert attention from the moral lapses (and that’s a kind word) that have besmirched his term in office. The Grits and the Tories are now tied in the polls.
The best way to do that, he may believe, is to usher in a spree of spending measures that will help him change the subject.
Which poses the question, how does O’Toole respond? To date, the man’s only obvious asset is his honest sonsie face, as Robert Burns put it, though Burns was talking about a haggis.
Whether O’Toole has more than that to offer we’re about to see. For if the throne speech presages continued fiscal profligacy, how he responds will define his legacy.
Does he intend to back the government? If you want to kindle Western alienation, just try.
Does he abstain? Hardly an act of leadership.
Surely his only option is to vote no confidence.
But here is where the noose begins to tighten. Whatever expansionary policies are announced will be set around with appeals to family values like generosity and a helping hand.
They will be crafted explicitly to make any opposition look hard hearted — an epithet the Grits will want to tie around O’Toole’s neck. Give a dog a bad name and hang it.
This, in effect, was Stephen Harper’s fate. Despite being an able and competent manager, he allowed an alleged indifference to the country’s social ills to become his public face.
The solution, of course, is for O’Toole to get out ahead and define himself first, before others do it for him.
Yet most Canadians aren’t overly worried about the nation’s finances at present. Their immediate concerns are the ongoing COVID epidemic and their family’s safety. Trudeau knows this.
So does O’Toole. It’s why he’s trying to pivot to Western alienation and rebuilding the economy. Safe ground, he might think.
But no Conservative leader can stand aside and watch the country’s bank account emptied in pursuit of political expedience.
Whether he likes it or not, O’Toole’s first priority must be to chart a path forward in the face of a catastrophic financial meltdown.
And he has to bring this necessity home to fearful voters whose inclination will be to grasp any lifeline thrown them by the Liberals, longer term consequences be damned.
This is surely the most difficult challenge to face an opposition leader in recent times. Trudeau is betting O’Toole can’t meet it.
