WASHINGTON — Presidents past and present are making one last campaign push — one side pleading for votes, the other predicting big wins — as the tumultuous 2022 U.S. midterm election caravan finally nears the election-day finish line.
That threshold is growing illusory in the post-pandemic age, however: voting has been going on across the country for weeks, with more than 42 million ballots already cast, and the final outcome may take even longer to crystallize.
That's producing ominous echoes of 2020 in battleground states like Pennsylvania, where polls suggest the fight for control of the Senate is coming down to the wire.
"Buckle up for a long week," warned Brendan McPhillips, the campaign manager for Democratic Senate hopeful John Fetterman, in a message to supporters.
"Similar to 2020, the reality is it will take time — likely several days — to count the votes accurately and ensure every eligible vote is counted."
McPhillips is worried about a repeat of what happened two years ago, when ballots that were cast in person on voting day, which tend to favour Republicans, were counted first, fuelling the impression of a GOP victory, and later claims of a stolen election.
The outcome of the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania wasn't officially called for Joe Biden until four full days later, sealing an outcome that the vanquished Donald Trump continues to deny to this day.
"This race is close," McPhillips said. "We should all be prepared for a process that takes several days before all eligible votes are properly counted and the results are clear."
The Keystone State's importance in building the next Congress was abundantly obvious over the weekend, when Biden and Barack Obama reunited their 2008 Democratic ticket to gin up support for Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro.
Both of them leaned hard into the latest Democratic effort to try to blunt powerful Republican attacks on the economy, inflation and crime: pointed warnings about the health and future of democracy itself.
"Listen, I understand that democracy might not seem like a top priority right now. Especially when you're worried about paying the bills," Obama told the crowd.
"But when true democracy goes away — we've seen throughout history, we've seen around the world — when true democracy goes away, people get hurt. It has real consequences."
Just down the road in Latrobe, Penn., Trump himself was in the throes of his own full-court campaign press, although it seemed more about fortifying his own White House comeback bid than helping Dr. Mehmet Oz beat Fetterman.
He road-tested a new nickname for hard-charging rival Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, calling him "DeSanctimonious," and all but declared he intends to run again, something the New York Times says he'll make official before the end of the month.
"I promise you, in the very next, very, very, very short period of time, you're going to be so happy," Trump said. "You're going to be surprised at how soon — but first, we have to win a historic victory for Republicans in November."
Republican control of the House is widely seen as a foregone conclusion. The Senate, however, remains too close to call. And while Pennsylvania seemed like the centre of the congressional universe Saturday, it's far from the only battleground that could determine which party controls the Senate.
Trump was scheduled to make one last appearance Monday night, this time in Ohio, where venture capitalist and "Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance is vying against congressman Tim Ryan, who's made no secret of his willingness to back the former president's protectionist impulses.
In Arizona, Trump-adjacent Republican Kari Lake's bid to become governor has consumed a lot of political oxygen and vaulted her onto the national stage, fuelling speculation she could end up on a presidential ticket before long.
Polls suggest Lake is nursing a narrow lead over her Democratic rival, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, while on the Senate side, Sen. Mark Kelly is trying to fend off a challenge from GOP hopeful Blake Masters.
Next door in Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has pulled ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto, although like most of the battleground Senate races, his lead remains within the typical margin of error.
And if the results of the midterms won't be clear for several days after polls close Tuesday night, it could take even longer to determine who controls the Senate if that ends up coming down to the fight in Georgia.
There, polls suggest Sen. Raphael Warnock is deadlocked with Herschel Walker, the football hero who remains in the running despite a long list of abortion controversies, campaign exaggerations and rhetorical pratfalls.
With abortion top of mind following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, Walker's staunch anti-abortion position was undermined over the summer by two women who accused him of pushing and paying for them to get the procedure.
State law in Georgia requires a run-off election in the event no one candidate secures at least 50 per cent of the vote, which seems likely given the presence of Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver on the ballot.
The run-off vote in Georgia would take place Dec. 6.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2022.
James McCarten, The Canadian Press
