Very few fed-eral politicians are planning to get involved in the Quebec election campaign, with one of those notable exceptions being Justin Trudeau.
In the face of an unpredictable three-way race, and an untold number of potential consequences for Canadian politics, federal parties will tread carefully starting today when Premier Jean Charest is expected to call a vote for Sept. 4.
The premier has all but made it official. Seeking a rare fourth term, Charest was nominated late Tuesday as a Liberal candidate in Sherbrooke, where he faces a tough battle in his own riding.
"When we announce the elections we will inform you," Charest told reporters earlier in the day. "And it won't be very long."
Outside his nomination meeting, student protesters gathered for a peaceful demonstration. Many more protests are expected during the campaign, which will be held against the unpredictable backdrop of student strikes.
Federal parties are aware of the potential for the noise to spread to the national-unity front, where a decade of relative calm could end in several weeks' time.
While recent polls place support for independence below 50 per cent, and suggest the issue is low on voters' priority list, there are hints of choppy political waters ahead.
The pro-independence Parti Québécois enters the campaign as the presumptive front-runner and has wasted no time declaring its plan to pick fights with the Harper Tories, should it get elected, in an effort to stir nationalist passions.
The PQ has tossed another unpredictable ele-ment into the mi a plan to allow more frequent referendums, as initiated in many U.S. states with citizens collecting petition signatures, and it's far from clear when that moment might arrive or how the federal government might prepare for it.
Whenever Quebec has held a vote on independence, the sovereigntists' main foe in the Prime Minister's Office has been a Quebecer. The first time they faced Pierre Trudeau, who delivered a 1980 referendum campaign speech best remembered for the line, "My name is a Canadian name."
Trudeau's son will play a far more limited role in this Quebec election campaign.
Justin Trudeau is only preparing to help out his provincial counterpart in the urban Montreal riding of Papineau.
The prominent Liberal MP, a potential leadership candidate, is ready to appear at public events with provincial Liberal Gerry Sklavounos if he's asked, a spokesman said Tuesday.
"Of course, we'll be involved a bit," said LouisAlexandre Lanthier.
As for other federal politicians, most are claiming neutrality.
The Conservatives are proceeding carefully.
Aware of the potential challenge ahead in Quebec, where his party holds few seats, Prime Minister Stephen Harper recently met with Brian Mulroney to discuss strategy in the province.
An early strategic choice, it appears, is to avoid loudly taking sides.
"It's a choice for Quebecers," said Julie Vaux, a spokeswoman for Harper.
The NDP, which holds most federal seats in Quebec, also plans to steer clear. It has MPs of varying provincial stripes and, as with some other divisive Quebec issues, it will avoid picking sides.
The party says it's going to concentrate on its duties as the federal Opposition.
The Bloc Québécois, on the other hand, makes no bones about its allegiance. Bloc Leader Daniel Paille's troops will help out the PQ.
