The Canadian Hockey League opened this weekend with major-junior — once the gold standard in terms of player development — at a crossroads.
Once the surest route to pro hockey, major-junior — the Western Hockey League and Victoria Royals, the Ontario Hockey League and the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League — has seen its share of players selected in the National Hockey League draft continue to erode.
The Vancouver Canucks, who skated in training camp last week at Save-on-Foods Memorial Centre, did so with a recent history of ignoring major-junior hockey in the first round of the NHL draft. The Canucks’ first picks four of the last five years have been Brock Boeser out of the junior United States Hockey League in 2015, Elias Pettersson out of the pro Swedish Allsvenskan in 2017, Quinn Hughes out of the University of Michigan Wolverines of the NCAA in 2018 and Vasily Podkolzin out of the Russian pro Vysshaya Hokkeinaya Liga in 2019.
Spot a trend there?
When Jack Hughes of the U.S. and Kaapo Kakko of Finland skated in Pool B of the 2019 International Ice Hockey Federation world junior championship last winter at the Memorial Centre, they did so as the top two prospects for the 2019 NHL draft. Neither of them played Canadian major-junior hockey and they both, indeed, went 1-2 in the draft. Hughes went first overall to the New Jersey Devils, the first of an astonishing eight first-round picks taken from the centralized U.S. Under-18 team. Kakko came out of TPS Turku of the Finnish pro SM-liiga.
It was the U.S., with a roster of NCAA collegiate players, and Finland, with a roster of young pros, which went from pool play at the Memorial to play in the gold-medal final at Rogers Arena in Vancouver of the 2019 world juniors.
Spot a trend there, too?
A total of 71 CHL player were selected in the 2019 NHL draft held at Rogers Arena, including three top-10 selections out of the WHL with Kirby Dach of the Saskatoon Blades at No. 3 overall, Bowen Byram of the Vancouver Giants at No. 4 and Dylan Cozens of the of the Lethbridge Hurricanes at No. 7.
While that is impressive, the CHL total represents only 32 per cent of the 217 players selected in the 2019 draft. That means 68 per cent of the players chosen by NHL teams came from other avenues of development.
Included in the latter were the three players taken out of the Victoria Grizzlies of the B.C. Hockey League, led by Colorado Avalanche first-round selection Alex Newhook, now at Boston College in the NCAA.
“You’re not reading too much into it,” said Stan Smyl, director of player development for the Canucks.
The eight U.S. U-18 team players taken in the first round was the story of the first round of the 2019 NHL draft.
“In terms of pure numbers, the U.S. is catching up in hockey,” noted Smyl. “Hockey is growing in popularity in the U.S. and they have an overwhelming population advantage on Canada, so you are seeing that being reflected in terms of where pro players are coming from.”
And where the development shift is happening. The Royals have had several American players on their WHL roster, but the majority of top young American players choose the university route through the NCAA. That was evident through the Canucks’ first-round selections of Boeser and Quinn, who played in the NCAA for North Dakota and Michigan, respectively. The Canucks’ roster also includes former NCAA players Adam Gaudette (Northeastern), Thatcher Demko (Boston College), Chris Tanev (R.I.T.) and Troy Stetcher (North Dakota).
Pettersson and Podkolzin are part of a different hockey system. It’s the European soccer model in which top kids join academies of pro teams and are developed in that academy system. There is no real Canadian-style junior hockey in Europe. Top 18- and 19-year-old players graduate from the academies they attended to join that club’s minor-pro teams en route to the Premiership. As a result, at 18 and 19, they play against older pro players, which can’t help but accelerate and enhance their development.
Canadian 19-year-old juniors, meanwhile, are going up against 16- and 17-year-olds. That was starkly brought out when the journeymen but older U Sports Canadian university all-stars, all former major-junior players, easily dominated the future NHLers on Canada’s junior team in the 2019 pre-world junior championship exhibitions played last winter at The Q Centre in Colwood. The U Sports players just leaned in and the Canadian juniors were pushed off the puck.
“In Europe, top junior-age players play pro against men and get stronger,” said Smyl.
Cam Hope, the Royals general manager, noted the elite hockey development model has changed.
“The playing field has levelled around the world and is becoming more sophisticated every year,” he said. “Everyone puts their own tweak on it.”
But don’t count out major-junior just yet. It still has a role to play, and a big one.
“[NHL] players are coming out of a lot of different leagues now,” said former Royals star Matthew Phillips, a Calgary Flames prospect.
“But major-junior was good for my development and still has its place because you play similar to a pro schedule and it is run very professionally.”
Smyl concurred: “Major-junior is still there and important. Sometimes, these things go in cycles.”
There is no argument from Hope.
“The Hockey Canada model [of which the CHL and major-junior is a big part] is still the gold standard,” said the Royals GM.
“The fundamentals of it are strong.”
Royals defenceman Will Warm skated with the likes of Pettersson and Quinn Hughes as a free-agent invite in Canucks training camp last week on Blanshard.
“Different routes work for different people,” said the 20-year-old blue-liner.
“Major-junior worked best for me. It made the most sense for me. If I had to, I would make that same decision again.”
Those thoughts were echoed by Royals forward Kaid Oliver, whose brother Chace Oliver, plays in the BCHL for the Grizzlies and is hoping to land an NCAA athletic scholarship to further his hockey career.
“It’s about different ways and different routes for different players,” said Kaid Oliver.
“It depends on your style and how developed physically you are. The NCAA is a longer route and is good for some people because of that. It also allows you to stay in front of scouts for a longer time.”
Kaid Oliver is dyslexic, and said university and NCAA hockey was never really an option for him because of that, but is for his brother.
“The WHL was a better route for me personally,” said Kaid Oliver.
“Major-junior is a grind and you have to be mentally tougher.”
Many say the one thing that would help the development system, whether major-junior, NCAA or Europe, is to raise the NHL draft age from 18 to 19.
“I strongly believe the draft age should be raised to 19,” said Smyl.
“Million-dollar decisions are being made in whether to invest in players who are young [at 18]. You really don’t know what you’re getting. That extra year would bring more certainty. ”
National Football League players don’t get to the pros until after at least three years of NCAA university play, which means not until at least age 21, and usually older. The draft age for the National Basketball League is 19.
“When I was in the NHL [as assistant GM of the New York Rangers], I felt the NHL should draft at 19,” said Hope.
“Because even that one year gives more certainty. The longer you wait to draft players, the more certainty you have.”
These issues, however, swirl around only the one per cent, or less. Most the players in the CHL, NCAA or Europe will never come close to making the NHL.
Hope said his goal with the Royals is to turn out well-rounded individuals, no matter where their hockey and life journeys eventually lead them.
