A vaccine for COVID-19 will be rolled out in the coming weeks.
Two pharmaceutical firms, Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc., have completed field trials, with their vaccines achieving a 94 per cent success rate. AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are close behind.
These are astonishing results, accomplished in record-breaking time. On average it takes 10 years or more to develop a new vaccine. These COVID vaccines were created in just eight months, for a disease never seen before.
Of course problems could still arise. But the Pfizer trials, in particular, look very robust. More than 40,000 participants in six countries were inoculated, and the vaccine was effective across all demographic groups. Only minor side effects were noted, like fatigue (at 3.8 per cent) and headache (at two per cent.)
The real issue turns on who gets first access to the vaccine, and how that decision is made.
The National Advisory Committee on Immunization laid out a priority list last month. It includes people with serious pre-existing conditions, like diabetes or heart disease, and family members who live in the same house as those in this first group.
Long-term care workers, people in Indigenous communities, and front-line workers such as first responders or grocery store employees are also included.
But it’s clear that in the early stages, the limited supplies of vaccine will fall far short of treating everyone on that list. Best estimates suggest that, nation-wide, around six million doses will be available by early next year.
It may be September before everyone is vaccinated.
Moreover, the advisory committee’s recommendations are purely for guidance. Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, has said final deployment plans rest with the provinces.
That raises the possibility that roll-out strategies may differ from region to region.
It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see the potential for trouble if such a scenario develops.
There will be accusations that arbitrary choices are being made about who gets a potentially life-saving treatment. Complaints will be raised that groups given priority in one part of Canada have been placed far down the list in another.
B.C.’s provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, has already said that seniors in long-term care homes and hospitals will be the first to get immunized, along with staff in these facilities.
What about other first responders such as ambulance crews or police officers? Or employees in malls and large stores who of necessity interact with large numbers of people?
How about residents in Surrey where the disease is peaking? B.C.’s share of those six million early vaccine doses would make it possible to inoculate everyone in Surrey right away, greatly slowing the spread of the virus.
Our point is not to dispute Henry’s priorities. It is to note that we should not have multiple and conflicting strategies from province to province.
We have federal officials contradicting their provincial colleagues, saying they have no idea where their counterparts are getting their information.
Some provinces plan to distribute the vaccine direct to regional health authorities. Some plan to distribute through wholesale firms and pharmacies. There is no common approach to what the premier of Ontario has called a “logistical nightmare”.
Ideally Tam would lay down nationwide priorities that everyone must follow.
However if this cannot be accomplished — if her authority does not extend to that degree — then we need an immediate federal/provincial meeting to hammer this out.
It is understandable, given the focussed attention of our leaders on containing the epidemic, that not enough thought has been given to distributing a vaccine.
But this cannot continue. A national strategy that nails down essential points of detail must be in place.
Of course allowance should be made for local realities. Nevertheless, during the next nine months, some very difficult decisions will be made about who is treated first.
The rollout will only proceed smoothly if those decisions are based on the broadest possible consensus, country-wide.
