Everyone has an opinion on where Victoria's real-estate market will go in 2006, but few enjoy as sweeping a bird's-eye view as Scott Kendrew.
President of the Victoria Real Estate Board, Kendrew has been selling real estate on Vancouver Island for more than 33 years. While he acknowledges it's dangerous to predict Victoria's housing market, he told industry representatives at the Canadian Home Builders' Association's annual Crystal Ball that he expects the market to remain strong this year.
"Wherever I go, the big question is, 'Do we have a housing bubble?' " said Kendrew.
"And the next question people ask is if it's going to burst and when it's going to burst."
But there's no bubble, according to Kendrew, pointing to historical real-estate statistics to support his position.
"I've seen increases larger than what we've seen in the last two or three years," he said.
"In 1980 and 81, we had an 88 per cent increase in values and the joke in the industry at that time was that if you went out for coffee, you had to be retrained because you had been out of the market too long. Prices were changing so fast, we couldn't keep up with it."
Such steep climbs have been followed by painful descents in the past, but Kendrew maintains Victoria's market, which climbed 17 per cent in 2003, the same amount in 2004 and 20 per cent in 2005, is not a speculative one. Builders burned by past plunges in real-estate values are planning more carefully to keep the supply of new housing stock in line with the demand, a strategy that promotes stability in the industry.
Kendrew points to other factors that boost confidence in the market.
The lowest unemployment rates in Greater Victoria in 29 years, low interest rates, investors who have turned to real estate after growing disenchanted with stock-market scandals, the arrival of greater numbers of retirees to the Island as the population ages and a mild climate all combine to make Victoria an unparalleled destination in Canada.
"Where else in Canada can you drive down the street in January and see pink blossoms coming out?" said Kendrew.