Public health experts now believe the COVID-19 epidemic will continue well into next year and quite possibly beyond. That means masks and social distancing are going to remain part of our lives for some time to come.
Certainly the arrival of promising vaccines is encouraging. Yet there are several uncertainties as to their overall effect.
First, some of the leading vaccines require two inoculations, perhaps three to four weeks apart. That means it will take some time for a person to gain full immunity, even if the vaccines perform as well in the field as they have in clinical trials.
Second, it’s not known whether someone who’s had the vaccine can still spread the virus to others. It is possible for individuals to be a carrier of some diseases, even after being immunized.
Third, it will be at least September before everyone in Canada can be treated. That will delay the point at which masks and social distancing can be phased out.
Lastly it’s possible the virus will mutate, as the flu virus does, meaning new vaccines will continually be required.
In the meantime we face a difficult decision. It’s clear that mask-wearing and social distancing slow the disease.
But it is also becoming ever more apparent that these measures bring costs of their own. Drug overdose deaths are soaring.
While some of that is due to ever more concentrated forms of fentanyl on the street, it seems likely that the loneliness imposed by various bans on intermixing are also a factor. We are, at core, a social animal.
The number of people who report considering suicide has doubled during the pandemic. And nearly 25 per cent of Canadians say their mental health has diminished, much of it caused by a sense of losing control over their personal lives.
In addition, the damage done to our economy, and to government finances, is immense. According to the Institute of International Finance, household, corporate and government debt levels in Canada have risen faster than any developed country since the pandemic began. We are far ahead of countries with much worse infection rates.
Part of the problem is that we have no prior experience in weighing such costs. The Spanish flu of 1918 killed nearly 50 million people, far more than the current COVID-19 death toll of 1.6 million victims.
But in 1919 there were precious few protective measures that could be taken. There was no choice but to soldier on.
Today we have options unknown at that time. The question is how aggressively to pursue them, and for how long.
And wrapped up in that question is the matter of how such choices should be made. To date most of the decision-making has been delegated to public health officials, backed up by government emergency powers.
But if we’re in this for the long haul, does that still remain the best way to proceed?
Opinion polls early in the epidemic showed strong support in every province for the measures being adopted. But more recently that support has softened, due partly to fatigue.
A strategy of broader consultation might help shore up support. We had a recent example of the need for that.
The provincial health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, announced on Dec. 7 that a decision had been made not to lengthen the winter school break, as some other provinces are doing.
But although Henry indicated her officials had spoken with stakeholders, the B.C. Teachers’ Federation said it had not been contacted. While the education minister, Jennifer Whiteside, downplayed any disagreement, that seems an obvious oversight.
Principally it comes down to this: If we are to get through the many long months that lie ahead, more effective forms of public involvement must be adopted.
