Sheila Malcolmson won the Nanaimo byelection Wednesday, holding the riding for her party and preserving the B.C. NDP’s slim margin in the legislature.
Pollsters had predicted a fight to the finish, but in the end, the election didn’t appear to be as close as many had prognosticated. Media outlets began to call the election in Malcolmson’s favour with little over half of ballot boxes reporting, as the B.C. NDP candidate’s lead ballooned to over 1,000 votes.
Malcolmson’s lead only expanded as precincts continued to report.
Hindsight: This one was never in doubt
One poll that made the rounds online Wednesday suggested the B.C. Liberals were actually the frontrunner in the race, running contrary to the long-held opinion of most pundits. The poll was met with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Another takeaway: pollsters really got it wrong in #Nanaimo. The results weren’t nearly as tight as predicted. #bcpoli
— Lesli Boldt (@LesliBoldt) January 31, 2019
With the benefit of hindsight, it seemed as though the outcome was never really in any doubt, as many pointed out online. Nanaimo has been an NDP stronghold for quite some time, and nothing has changed since Horgan took over as Premier.
Pundits will be offering hot takes on what the Nanaimo result means.
— Matt MacInnis (@Matt_MacInnis) January 31, 2019
What it means is that super strong ridings for political parties are considered very safe for a reason. They are safe.
Kudos to all the volunteers. Have a Nanaimo craft beer tonight. #bcpoli
MORAL OF THE STORY IN BC POLITICS TONIGHT:
— Justin McElroy (@j_mcelroy) January 31, 2019
1) If a party wins a riding 13/15 times in the last half-century, they're probably going to win it during a generic byelection.
2) There's no evidence the NDP has lost its core base since the provincial election.
Two thoughts:
— Tom Hawthorn (@tomhawthorn) January 31, 2019
1. If an NDP gov't had to fight a by-election with gov't in the balance, Nanaimo is one of the best places to have that fight.
2. BCLiberals recruited strong candidate, all hands on deck, tons of $$$, best reason for BCLiberal supporter to vote, still could not win.
Some saw the results as evidence that Nanaimo voters liked what they’ve seen from the alliance of the two left-leaning parties, and merely voted to maintain it.
I'd suggest Green voters in Nanaimo very much like the achievements of the NDP-Green alliance, so have voted to ensure the BC Liberals don't jeopardize that government.
— Tom Hawthorn (@tomhawthorn) January 31, 2019
Did Greens lose support?
That would certainly explain the mediocre showing from Green candidate Michele Ney, the daughter of longtime Nanaimo mayor Frank Ney, who received just seven per cent of the vote — well below the almost 20 per cent the party received in the last provincial election. Nanaimo voters may have simply wanted to maintain the new status quo, and thus were careful not to split the vote.
Others, however, saw support for the Green Party evaporating in the Harbour City.
RRU poliscientist David Black says collapse of Green vote a decisive factor in by election outcome. Also NDP continued to get its people to the polls. #nanaimovotes pic.twitter.com/VBBaTcNyFu
— Carla Wilson (@carlawilsonTC) January 31, 2019
Green Party support evaporated in Nanaimo tonight, shifted over to the NDP. Green leader Andrew Weaver told me he knew on the doorsteps that strategic voting was going to hurt the Greens, put the NDP over the top. He was right. #NanaimoVotes
— Mike Smyth (@MikeSmythNews) January 31, 2019
Some points on NDP win: We’re reverting back to a polarized province. The BC Greens are shrinking. That 17% vote in 2017 was in a big way an anti-Liberal vote. The Libs boosted their iNanaimo vote almost 9 pts, much of it taken from the Greens. NDP vote up almost 3. #bcpoli
— Keith Baldrey (@keithbaldrey) January 31, 2019
Ney and party leader Andrew Weaver pushed back on this assertion in a joint news release, after offering Malcolmson their congratulations.
“I’d like to congratulate MLA-elect Sheila Malcolmson,” Ney said. “I’m proud of the campaign that we ran in Nanaimo; it was principled and visionary. I am confident that tonight’s results speak to voters’ desire to see the government continue in partnership with the B.C. Greens."
Weaver, meanwhile, explained away the support lost since the last election by pointing to strategic voting.
“While disappointing, tonight’s results were not unexpected, given the conversations we have had with Green voters over the past few weeks”, Weaver said. “I can say with absolute certainty that our support exceeds the votes cast for the party today. I spent a lot of time in Nanaimo campaigning with Michele, and many members, donors and supporters of our party came up to us saying that while they continued to support our party, they felt they needed to vote for the NDP in this by-election so that the government and our agreement with them can continue.”
MLAs offer congratulations
But while the Greens might see a cause for concern in these results, orange MLAs saw only a reason for celebration and congratulations, and they were quick to offer the latter on social media.
“Congratulations to Sheila Malcolmson on her election as the new MLA for Nanaimo,” said the Premier in a news release. “I know she will work hard for the people of Nanaimo and she will bring passion and integrity to the Legislature.”
“I very much look forward to working with Sheila as our government continues its work to make life better for people in BC.”
Other B.C. MLAs took to social media to express their approval with the outcome:
Looking forward to working with @s_malcolmson in the spring legislative session - Congeatulations! Welcome to @BCNDP caucus #bcpoli #NanaimoVotes
— George Heyman (@GeorgeHeyman) January 31, 2019
Congratulations Sheila! Outstanding victory. Welcome to the NDP caucus. A solid acknowledgement of the work of the John Horgan government. Thank you. #NanaimoVotes
— Shane Simpson (@ShaneLSimpson) January 31, 2019
Way to go @s_malcolmson next MLA for Nanaimo, welcome to the team, you did a terrific job. You’re going to do Nanaimo proud. #Nanaimo #bcpoli
— Mike Farnworth (@mikefarnworthbc) January 31, 2019
Congratulations @s_malcolmson - looking forward to working with you! Thanks to all the dedicated volunteers and supporters! We’re going to continue working hard for people in our communities across B.C. every single day! @bcndp #NanaimoVotes #bcpoli https://t.co/TtbfwIbDnq
— Katrina Chen (@KatrinaCBurnaby) January 31, 2019
Welcome to the provincial legislature @s_malcolmson ! Congrats to you and your team on a great campaign. Thank you Nanaimo for supporting our work and sending Sheila to Victoria. We've got lots to do; glad for two more hands (and one more vote) pitching in.
— David Eby (@Dave_Eby) January 31, 2019
