Several ridings in the province could flip as counting begins today of absentee and mail-in ballots, but no swings are expected on Vancouver Island, says a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.
“I don’t see it,” said Richard Johnston, who predicts ridings such as Vernon-Monashee, Nelson-Creston and a couple of Surrey ridings could see shifts.
Many of the Island races were between the NDP and the Greens, he said, and the Greens “are just too far behind in the Island ridings that they did not actually win.”
He said that postal ballots will push up the NDP’s share of the vote as well as the Green one.
As for the Greens yielding to the NDP in Island seats where the Greens are out front, Johnston called the gap in Saanich-Gulf Islands unbridgeable, and the narrower gap in Cowichan unlikely to be bridged.
Mail-in ballots on the Island are more likely tilted toward the NDP, said Johnston, who based his forecast on share of the vote won by the NDP and Greens in 2017, the size of the district voter population, and the number of packages requested as a percentage of total number of the registered voters.
Initial counting saw the NDP poised to win 55 of the province’s 87 ridings, the Liberals expected to take 29 and the Greens three seats.
Before the final numbers can be determined, however, more than 630,000 certification envelopes, including absentee ballots and mail-in ballots, have to be counted.
Since the predominant vote swing was toward the NDP, it’s “relatively unlikely” that counting the postal ballots will materially improve the Liberals’ lot, Johnston said.
The final count of absentee and mail-in ballots is expected to take at least three days to complete.
Results will be updated online at results.elections.bc.ca starting at 10 a.m. today.
Certification envelopes that do not pass screening are set aside and not opened.
Those that are opened and contain no ballot, or more than one marked ballot, will also be set aside.
Candidates and at least one representative per candidate are allowed to be present at the final count.
Once the final count is complete, there is a six-day period during which a judicial recount can be requested in the event of an extremely close race.
Preliminary results showed 52.4 per cent of the province’s 3.49 million registered voters cast ballots at advance and election-day polls for the Oct. 24 election.
Ballots across the Island
Certification envelopes containing absentee and mail-in ballots received in each electoral district as of Nov. 4 include:
11,512 in Courtenay-Comox
10,425 in Cowichan Valley
10,548 in Esquimalt-Metchosin
10,034 in Langford- Juan de Fuca
6,682 in Mid Island-Pacific Rim
10,503 in Nanaimo
8,797 in Nanaimo- North Cowichan
7,069 in North Island
13,306 in Parksville-Qualicum
14,686 in Saanich-North Islands
12,780 in Saanich South
16,696 in Victoria-Beacon Hill
11,374 in Victoria-Swan Lake
