The latest media report by Zenith Media Consumption, regarded widely as an authority on advertising forecasting, suggests that by 2020, the average Canadian will consume about a quarter of the newspapers they did in 2011.
On the other hand, internet consumption is increasing drastically — 119.4 per cent over nine years — mostly driven by mobile access to social media.
For the leaders of political parties, the trend seems to be to avoid thoughtfully researched candidate positions in favour of social media “direct to the people” appeals by the candidates.
When U.S. impeachment-in-waiting President Donald Trump, in the run-up to the 2016 election, told his Las Vegas MAGA audience “I love the poorly educated,” he was revealing something few knew but he probably did; that a study by the Alliance for Audited Media had detected a clear correlation between low print newspaper subscription rates and his 2016 rally successes.
That correlation enabled Trump to make bold assertions about immigration, crime, racial bases of crime and more without any verifiable facts or independent checks.
Journalistic dispute about statements and claims was just “fake news.”
It was a winning strategy, and places with social-media access but minimal print or even online newspaper access went for Trump in bewildering numbers.
Another analysis by Politico, an admittedly left-leaning American source of news commentary in the United States, found that Trump did better when, rather than speak to journalists or take part in journalists Q&As, he used social media — especially Twitter.
“Don’t believe the ‘fake news’ — believe me” became the mantra.
Picking tweets apart by experienced journalists took time and sounded like political “sour grapes.”
Legend has it that during one of Lyndon Johnson’s U.S. congressional campaigns, he decided to spread a rumour that his opponent was a child molester. LBJ’s campaign manager said, “Lyndon, you know he doesn’t do that!” Johnson replied: “I know. I just want to make him deny it.”
Lying on social media without any fear of immediate face-to-face contradiction avoids the kind of annoying fact-checking that pesky print newspaper journalists employ to get at the truth.
Here in Canada, some political parties and politicians seem to be heading down the same media and elector avoidance road.
In the 2015 federal election, Progressive Conservative candidates, according to a report by the Toronto Star, had been advised not to attend all-candidates’ meetings or speak to reporters during the campaign.
In 2018, according to reports compiled by CBC News, Ontario provincial PC nominees for the June 7 election skipped meetings in at least 25 ridings across the province.
Here on Vancouver Island, some all-candidates meetings for the Oct. 21 election have experienced empty Conservative chairs.
Meanwhile, the federal party leader has become your daily “Facebook friend.”
If print media, newspapers especially, are struggling to avoid becoming a dying business, it might be because of the instant convenience offered by digital media which, unlike a thoughtful if lengthy newspaper analysis, does not require much thought in the process of becoming at least superficially informed to the level of lunchroom discussion.
Complex issues such as the Trans Mountain pipeline, immigration and LGBTQ rights become voter base targets for politicians simply looking for a quick television photo-op beside somebody associated with their side of the issue.
None of this is good news for print media.
The Zenith findings, based on data from Numeris, Vividata and other measurement organizations, claim that in 2011, Canadians consumed newspaper content for an average of 17 minutes per day.
The total time spent reading thoughtful newspaper analyses of issues has been consistently dropping, and was most recently confirmed at 7.6 minutes per day for 2017. The predicted total for 2020 is 4.4 minutes. That puts newspapers’ decline in consumption and influence at 74.1 per cent over nine years.
So here’s the thing: It is newspapers, certainly the tried and tested ones refined by editorial ethics, that educate us about what is valid, true and verifiable, and what is not.
As we become more reliant on internet news sources, unfiltered by any editorial process, we become less fully informed and, to use Trump’s term, begin to accept poorly educated opinions we then take to the ballot box.
Geoff Johnson is a former superintendent of schools.
