As Premier Christy Clark begins her reluctant transition to Opposition, questions about how long she can last as B.C. Liberal Party leader are beginning to mount.
It’s not clear yet how much enthusiasm she will bring to her new role. If there is not a lot on display when the legislature resumes sitting in September, that may indicate she’s prepared to step down in the coming months.
Certainly, Clark seemed flat and deflated when she faced the media on two occasions the day and evening that Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon declined Clark’s request to dissolve the legislature rather than give B.C. NDP leader John Horgan the chance to test the confidence of the house.
But, after a few weeks walking a beach somewhere in August, Clark may well regain her energy and opt to lead her disappointed troops into political battle come the fall.
However, the longer the NDP-Green alliance can maintain power in the legislature, the weaker Clark’s grip on the party leadership will likely become.
There seems to be a good chance the new government could last at least until the fall of 2018, which means Clark would be Opposition leader for almost a-year-and-a-half. It’s hard not to believe that by next spring some knives will start being unsheathed in the B.C. Liberal tent.
Could she push back against any kind of revolt? And will she want to? Clark’s key asset, for the moment anyway, is the apparent support the new B.C. Liberal caucus has for her leadership.
I doubt whether any sitting member of the B.C. Liberal caucus will voice anything but 100 per cent support for Clark’s leadership in the weeks ahead. But will that still be the case come, say, next summer?
All it will take for a leadership crisis to emerge will be for one or two B.C. Liberal MLAs to start grumbling publicly about the state of the party or of Clark’s leadership and her support could come crashing down like a house of cards.
But we’re not at that point yet. Two recent polls (by Ipsos-Reid and Angus Reid) already show the B.C. Liberals have regained an edge in popularity over the NDP.
“If this is as bad as it’s going to be for us, I’ll take it,” one B.C. Liberal MLA recently told me. That’s the glass half-full attitude that seems to be ruling the day in the party caucus right now.
But as the weeks and months go by, we’ll see if that attitude shifts to one of the glass being half-empty. And if that happens, it could be fatal to Clark’s potential hopes of being the “comeback kid” yet again.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
