The next generation iPhone, which Apple Inc. plans to release this week, could not only boost the tech giant's bottom line but could give a significant boost to the overall U.S. economy.
Sales of the new iPhone 5 could add between a quarter and a half percentage point to fourth quarter annualized growth in the U.S., according to J.P. Morgan's chief economist, Michael Feroli, in a note to clients on Monday.
Such an impact would be significant.
"Calculated using the socalled retail control method, sales of iPhone 5 could boost annualized GDP growth by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate," Feroli wrote. That 0.33 percentage-point boost, he added, "would limit the downside risk to our Q4 GDP growth protection, which remains two per cent."
Feroli laid out his math. J.P. Morgan's analysts expect Apple to sell around eight million iPhone 5s in the fourth quarter. They expect the sale price to be about $600 US.
With about $200 in discounted import component costs, the government can factor in $400 per phone into its measure of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter.
Feroli said the estimate of between a quarter to a half point of annualized GDP "seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically." But, he added, "we think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection."
When the last iPhone was launched in October 2011, sales significantly outperformed expectations.
