The number of Victorians receiving employment insurance benefits in November was nearly double those of a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada figures released yesterday.

There were 4,040 people receiving EI benefits in Victoria in November 2009, a 97 per cent increase over the 2,050 in November 2008. But the number of people receiving regular EI benefits in B.C. declined for the second consecutive month, as it dropped by 2,100 people in November to 94,300. In October, the number dropped by 1,200 from the previous month.

Christine Stoneman, principal with Chemistry Consulting, the parent company of GT Hiring Solutions, which delivers employment programs around the province, said there's no surprise in the numbers.

"We certainly haven't seen a decline," she said, noting the number of people going through their programs is up throughout the province. "That's not a good sign for the economy. It means we are seeing a significant number of unemployed coming through our door."

According to Statistics Canada, while the number of people receiving benefits was higher in November 2009 in all census metropolitan areas, the pace of that increase has slowed. That is to be expected as economic improvement starts to take hold, said Ken Stratford, CEO of Business Victoria.

"I think figures will be fairly flat for a while but by the summer I suspect we will see some significant gains, right now [any changes] are essentially noise in the system," he said.

Stratford said he expects to see marginal improvements through the next few months to the point the unemployment rate drops from above 7.0 to below 6.0 by July.

The most recent figures released by Statistics Canada peg Victoria's unemployment rate at 7.6 per cent.

Stratford said most of the gains in employment over the next several months will be seasonal rather than a sign of an economy kicking back into life. "But still by the summer, I think we will see the impact of some returns to a more normal environment," he said.

He noted there are indicators suggesting the economy is very much in recovery mode.

"Retail numbers in Victoria are fairly good, not dramatic, but we're not seeing any dips, and bankruptcy rates are dropping," he said.

According to Statistics Canada, retailers in B.C. registered a sales increase of 0.6 per cent in November, continuing an upward trend since the beginning of 2009.

The Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy also reported this week Canadian bankruptcies fell for a second straight month in November. Bankruptcies declined four per cent to 8,878 from the month before -- business cases were down 7.7 per cent and consumer filings dropped 3.8 per cent.

"If [in Victoria] we've hit bottom, we've done OK," said Stratford. He expects the city could once again see record employment levels and even a return to an unemployment rate of below 3.0 per cent. "Then we're back to the issue of a shortage of labour."

Across the country, Statistics Canada reported the number of people receiving employment insurance benefits fell by 7,300 to 795,940 in November -- the number has declined slightly since peaking in June at 829,300.

The number of initial and renewal claims received in November amounted to 270,700, up 1,300, or 0.5 per cent, from the previous month.

aduffy@tc.canwest.com