Judging by past performance, the upcoming debate on the budget for the premier's office will be a snore. NDP Leader Carole James will harangue Premier Gordon Campbell for a couple of hours. Campbell will cheerlead for the Olympics every second sentence.

Blah-de-blah-de-blah.

There's nothing much exciting going on in the debates of other ministries' budgets either, unless you count the revelation from Energy Ministry this week that it bought four bicycles for staff to use around Victoria. (They're also thinking about using mountain bikes out in the field, instead of trucks and helicopters. So if you see someone in low gear pedalling up Mount Robson with drill bits, he's probably from the government.)

But enough digression. The point I am sneaking up on is that the Health Ministry spending debate is the main event.

The most incisive New Democratic Party critic, Adrian Dix, is going up against one of the most partisan and energetic cabinet ministers, Kevin Falcon. And the combat zone is the biggest, most expensive and most politically dangerous ministry of all.

The storyline has been the same in health for years. Estimated spending goes up every year. Then, most years, they overspend the estimate. Then they hike the estimate the next year. Then they usually overspend that. And so on.

All the while, the government's rhetoric is about the desperate need for efficiencies, rationalization and cost containment. And the opposition rings alarms about waiting lists, service cuts and whatever individual horror stories are handy.

One obvious side issue is the need to start charging people, in some fashion, for the services they are demanding in increasing numbers. But that's off limits. Nobody goes there.

Governments often try to scare people by pointing out the Health Ministry's insatiable appetite for money. In the 1980s there were stark warnings that health would soon consume 30 per cent of the provincial budget.

How quaint. We passed that years ago. Now we're at about 40 per cent and the warning is that soon health will consume 50 per cent.

Falcon this week set a new standard for alarmism, saying: "In the next 10 to 12 years, it could be up as high as 85 per cent if we don't try to do things differently."

If you follow the logical progression, by 2030 government will be 100-per-cent health. No cops, no highway crews, no social workers. It will be all health, all the time.

The people in government charting this progression are wasting their time. It doesn't seem to scare anyone. It hasn't had the slightest effect when it comes to curbing the growth rate.

The current state of play sees the Liberal government budgeting a 20-per-cent increase in health spending over the next three years. It's already been established that's not enough. So the health authorities are looking at cuts in order to get by.

Notable moments so far:

n Dix and Falcon had a prolonged argument about the exact percentages. It revolved around whether a one-time boost last year should be counted when calculating the change in the base amounts. It was amusing to see references to "one-time dollars," because, in health, there's no such thing as one-time dollars. Every boost goes to the base amount and every year the base need grows, prompting more boosts.

n The Olympic surgery break also prompted some debate on a semantic distinction. Doctors will be doing a few thousand fewer surgeries this winter because of the Olympics.

"Just to correct the member," said Falcon. "They're not being cancelled. It's more a case of their not being scheduled." The difference, apparently, is the historical experience shows nobody is interested in surgeries during the event, doctors as well as patients.

"So they've done a planned, scheduled reduction in the amount of contemplated surgeries," said Falcon. "It's not cancellations of anyone's surgeries."

n MRIs are always a favourite political target, so the two tangoed on that topic as well.

Falcon cited a threefold increase in MRIs over the Liberal years in one region. The number of scanners went to 21 from nine.

Dix countered with the wait list -- "dramatically higher" than Ontario's. And if they're maintaining MRI numbers after two new machines were just purchased, that means the numbers per machine are dropping.

The sparring continues next week.

lleyne@tc.canwest.com