Time and again I have read that the cost of sewage treatment for Victoria is $783 million. We are led to believe that the cost has been determined to within $1 million, which implies an accuracy of one one-thousandth of a billion. It’s not $784 million or $782 million, but $783 million. Such accuracy is ridiculous.
In large capital construction, holding the final cost to within 10 per cent is a substantial feat of estimation. In this case, assuming it won’t be less expensive, it means a total cost of up to $861 million, rounded to the nearest million.
The cost of sewage treatment, regardless of one’s views as to its efficacy, is best discussed in hundreds of millions, rather than even tens of millions. Consequently, it should be expressed as $800 million. From there, it’s a short trip to $1 billion.
Using figures that are excessively accurate is an old trick. It develops confidence in the audience by displaying authority and expertise when neither is present. In reality, proffering a number that is significant to one-10th of one per cent should be seen as foolish.
During the last election, I had an interesting discussion with one of the local MLA candidates. I explained to her my prediction that the cost overrun of the sewage-treatment plan beyond $783 million would be greater than the total cost of the Johnson Street Bridge replacement. Place your bets.
S. Rhys Kent
Saanich
