Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election was in every sense a stunning upset. Much has been made of his outsider status: He will be the first holder of America’s top office who has neither a political nor military background.
In that respect, the Canadian politician he most resembles is Brian Mulroney, who became prime minister after only 13 months in Parliament.
Mulroney, of course, left office nine years later with his party in ruins. The Progressive Conservatives won just two seats in the following election. The same fate might await Trump’s Republicans.
But there is another aspect of the American election that could spill into our own. B.C. goes to the polls in May. And there is every sign the campaign will be fought along traditional left/right lines.
The NDP’s messaging so far is no different than on previous occasions. The party will push for a greener economy, increased taxes on high-income earners and a more generous safety net.
The B.C. Liberals will stick to their strategy of promising to keep tax rates low, balance the budget and create more jobs. In short, a rerun of the 2013 campaign.
But Trump benefited from more than his outsider status. He drastically changed American politics by steering clear of the traditional left/right battlefield, and fighting instead an up/down war.
Many of the same issues remained in play — immigration, free trade, foreign policy — but he approached them from a different angle. Instead of asking an ideological question — what do our principles dictate? — he asked a practical question: Whose interests are we protecting?
On that basis, he threw out his party’s playbook and sided with working-class voters who felt ignored by both political parties.
Trump is a demagogue, and what he will do is anyone’s guess. But this is not the first indication that a new form of politics is emerging.
The Brexit vote in Britain echoed many of the same themes, with politicians on both sides of the left/right axis arguing to stay in the European Union and up/down voters opting to leave.
One underlying cause is a far-flung restructuring of the job market, worldwide. For the first time in generations, whole classes of workers in western countries are no longer guaranteed employment.
Yes, a new, information-based economy is rising. But that is no comfort to those employed in traditional industries whose livelihood is disappearing. And their question is: Who speaks for us?
In B.C., these divisions are already visible. The sectors of our economy that once offered well-paying jobs — resource extraction, logging, the fishery and support industries such as trucking and pipeline maintenance — are all under pressure.
At the same time, there is a marked worsening in the job market for young people who lack a university degree. Increasingly, permanent employment is being replaced by part-time work among this demographic group.
And there are political consequences of this upheaval. Those workers most threatened by change form a large enough voting bloc to determine the outcome of provincial elections.
In theory, the NDP should do well here. The party came into being to represent the little guy against external forces.
Yet Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberals won the 2013 election because they outmatched the NDP by nearly two to one in regions where jobs are most at risk.
Here, then, is the challenge for both parties. Can they lay aside their left/right dogmas and answer a simple question: What will you do to ensure all of our workers have decent, well-paid jobs?
Vague promises about a green economy or an LNG industry, both of which are still in the formative stages, won’t do.
The party that forthrightly confronts this new up/down politics will win.
