The Capital Regional District has released a far-reaching strategy to manage growth in Greater Victoria. The most controversial proposal would see 95 per cent of future housing units concentrated in two main urban corridors — Victoria-Oak Bay and Saanich, along with Colwood, Esquimalt and Langford. (There is a limited allowance for growth in smaller communities such as Sooke, Brentwood Bay and Sidney.)
The purpose is straightforward. If housing development continues in Metchosin, Highlands and outward toward the Sooke Hills, the region’s carbon footprint will grow. Equally, if more homes are built in Central and North Saanich, much of the peninsula’s farmland will be taken over.
Yet by 2038, it’s anticipated that the capital region’s population will increase by 95,000. That will necessitate the construction of 50,700 additional housing units — an increase of roughly a third.
The CRD’s preferred strategy is to meet this demand by building up rather than building out. If the plan is implemented, almost all of the required new housing stock will be located in already-urbanized areas. That means constructing more townhouses, condominiums and apartments, rather than single dwellings.
This is not in itself a radical change in direction. The CRD’s previous containment target, adopted in 2003, aimed at concentrating 90 per cent of new housing in existing urban areas.
And generally speaking, that target has been met. So there is a precedent in place.
Nevertheless, the strategy will tighten the screws in ways that, over time, might change the character of Victoria. Certainly we will see an acceleration of new high-rise buildings in the city core.
It’s also likely that, as space allocated for single dwelling homes grows more constricted, house prices will maintain their upward climb.
There are already signs the top end of this market is overheated. Unless interest rates go up dramatically, that seems fated to continue.
Obviously, this is a concern for lower-income families, who are already priced out of the market. But the implications are more far-reaching.
It must be assumed older Canadians from other parts of the country will continue to make the capital region their retirement home, perhaps in growing numbers as the population ages.
Some, no doubt, will be content to buy condominiums downtown, where amenities are close by. This is one of the strengths of the CRD’s strategy. It recognizes the desire of many senior citizens to live within close reach of services.
But some of the newcomers will also wish to purchase single-family homes. If new construction outside the containment zones is severely limited, the result will be a gentrification of existing neighbourhoods, as old homes are replaced with upscale residences. Is this a wise trade-off?
For that, in essence, is what the new growth strategy comes down to — a delicate balance of competing values.
Urban sprawl, and the resulting traffic congestion caused by commuters driving in from outlying districts, is already a source of much frustration. Our road system has been pushed to the breaking point, and there are no easy solutions.
On the other hand, part of Victoria’s charm is that it has, so far, avoided the clutter and noise of larger cities. The urban core still recalls memories of a more sedate and tranquil era. Whether that can be maintained if housing densities are driven ever higher is an open question.
The CRD’s strategy is not yet official policy. It must be ratified by all of the member municipalities. If one or more object, a compromise will have to be hammered out.
But one thing is certain. No one wants to see our city centres become less livable. Some inspired urban planning will be required to make this new strategy a success.
