U.S. President Donald Trump has once again demonstrated that his unpredictable and ill-conceived policies can have unexpected and even dangerous consequences for not just the United States, but other countries as well.
This unwelcome reality became obvious following his condemnation of Qatar for its alleged support of Islamic extremists in the Middle East, while he inexplicably ignored the important fact that his country has a major military base in Qatar.
Such behaviour by Trump no longer comes as a surprise, either in the U.S. or elsewhere.
However, his recent decision to withdraw the U.S. from the important Paris agreement on fighting global climate change was not only roundly criticized by many countries and prominent leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Trump’s questionable behaviour also undermined the traditional unquestioning support for the United States from NATO countries, as well as from member states of the European Union.
(Some viewed Trump’s recent actions as contributing factors in the Canadian government’s decision to increase military spending.)
Although leaders such as Merkel have publicly stated they will continue to regard the United States as an irreplaceable ally, both NATO members and EU countries remain uneasy when it comes to American intentions on vital issues of common concern.
That includes tension between Qatar and countries aligned with Saudi Arabia, including Egypt.
The tension is not new. Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, has pursued independent policies that the Saudis consider contrary to their own objectives, especially Qatar’s continued support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned by Egypt and others.
The Saudi authorities, as well as other Muslim-based governments in the Middle East, have not appreciated the Qatar-based Al Jazeera television network, which has frequently angered the region’s leaders by exposing their violations of human rights and lack of democracy.
The irritation of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states over Qatar’s continued efforts to carve out independent foreign policies reached the point where the Saudis, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, joined by Mohammed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, were looking for some way to slap them down by claiming Qatar was supporting “terrorist organizations.”
To demonstrate their unequivocal condemnation of Qatar’s alleged support for terrorist groups, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed a quarantine on shipments to and from Qatar. Although Qatar’s natural gas has continued to be exported to key customers such as Japan, India and South Korea, the risk of such essential shipments being blocked has alarmed several countries, with Iran sending emergency food aid.
And who recently visited Saudi Arabia in an effort to re-establish closer relations between it and other like-minded conservative Middle East governments? Donald Trump.
As expected, Trump took the occasion of visiting Saudi King Salman to call on the Saudis and other Middle East leaders to abandon their differences and go on the offensive against Islamic terrorist groups such as ISIS. Trump also called upon the Saudi king and other regional leaders to confront the nuclear threat posed by Iran.
But Trump’s personal approval for greater action against terrorist groups and countries that support them paradoxically had the opposite effect from what Trump anticipated. The Saudis saw it as a go-ahead sign to move against Qatar.
Turkey’s opportunistic leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is determined to restore Turkey’s leadership in the region, announced he was deploying military forces to an established Turkish military base in Qatar to ensure a peaceful settlement of the tension.
However, mindful of his own interest in maintaining relations with the Saudi rulers, Erdogan also called on King Salman to reach a peaceful resolution of the differences with Qatar.
As if that weren’t enough drama, Pakistan then announced it, too, was sending 20,000 troops to the region to assist efforts to seek a peaceful settlement.
And Trump? Where will he show up next?
Harry Sterling is a former diplomat and an Ottawa-based columnist.
