As the Cuban people celebrated New Year’s Day 2015, they also entered a potentially radically changed future for that island republic’s 11 million inhabitants.
But the nature of that future is far from clear at this stage, notwithstanding the air of optimism following the announcement last month that an agreement had been reached between the Obama administration and the authorities in Havana to finally re-establish diplomatic relations severed in 1962.
In recent times, many countries increasingly considered the U.S. trade boycott of Cuba no longer made sense, especially not after the implementation of several economic reforms implemented by President Raul Castro after he succeeded his brother Fidel in 2008. Those countries quickly welcomed the previously unthinkable move by President Barack Obama, with some, especially in Latin America, considering the move long overdue.
One of the few countries that never severed diplomatic relations with Havana was Canada, which, despite the U.S. attempt to isolate Cuba, continued to maintain trade and economic relations with Havana.
Although many Americans were angered by Ottawa maintaining full relations, the move was seen by some within the Washington power structure as potentially useful in keeping the U.S. aware of developments.
Canadian investments in Cuba have played a significant role in the Cuban economy, especially that of Toronto-based mining firm Sherritt International, reputedly the largest single investor in Cuba.
Because of Canada’s relatively good relations with both the U.S. and Cuba, Ottawa was asked to assist Obama’s initiative to re-establish a new relationship with Havana, thus ending more than a half-century of hostility between the two neighbours.
The close proximity of Florida and Cuba has important implications not just for Cuba and the U.S. It also could have consequences for overall Canadian interests in Cuba.
Because of the American blockade, Canada, as well as Mexico and European Union countries, especially Spain, became beneficiaries of the American refusal to do business with Havana.
However, any further opening up of trade and economic relations between the U.S. and Cuba will understandably have important implications for Canada and others trading with Cuba.
While many in the U.S., particularly anti-Castro Cuban-Americans in Florida, quickly denounced any softening of sanctions, some American business groups clearly would welcome access to what is perceived as a consumer-hungry market, especially since many American firms are accustomed to operating in Spanish. This, of course, assumes the relaxed relations with Cuba expand the Cuban economy to the point where personal disposable income to purchase American goods becomes a reality.
American firms could clearly dominate much of the lucrative Cuban tourist market in short order, especially since travel to Cuba from the U.S. in less than an hour would be a key factor in attracting American tourists.
Many Cuban-Americans have close relatives in Cuba and would enjoy a favourable advantage for entering the Cuban market economy if further sanctions are removed.
Keenly aware of this potentially negative fallout from the rapprochement between Washington and Havana, countries that currently operate in Cuba will soon confront a new threat from American business groups and entrepreneurs.
This potentially new competition on the horizon has direct implications for Canada.
If the Harper government is serious about protecting Canadian trade and investment interests in Cuba, it should give relations with that country major priority in coming days.
While the recent agreement is regarded as a positive development, it’s also necessary to bear in mind that any changes will have to take place in a society where a significant number of Cubans in ruling circles regard any radical changes as adversely affecting the nature of the society they’ve spent their lives identifying with.
Is there a place for them in a new Cuban society?
Recognizing this reality will be a major challenge for all Cubans.
Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator. He served in Cuba and writes on developments there.
