So when a highly successful and widely respected member of this country’s ruling Conservative party abruptly resigns, it doesn’t go unnoticed. This is especially true when the individual in question is only the latest Conservative MP to leave politics unexpectedly a year before Prime Minister Stephen Harper must face a critically important election — the ruling party’s popularity is reportedly waning due to increased support for the Liberal party, recently rejuvenated by Justin Trudeau.
The sudden resignation of Alberta MP Rob Merrifield, a highly successful veteran politician and key player in promoting Canadian trade and economic interests in the U.S., is viewed by some as possibly symptomatic of growing apprehension within the Conservative government over that party’s deteriorating electoral prospects in next October’s federal election.
Merrifield resigned Sept. 17 to accept an important non-elected position in Alberta Premier Jim Prentice’s new Progressive Conservative government. He will represent that province’s critically important trade and economic interests with the United States.
Merrifield’s resignation has generated predictable attention, coming on the heels of the resignation in November of popular Alberta Conservative MP Ted Menzies, who announced he would not be a candidate in the October 2015 national election. Some regard the two long-time Conservatives’ departures as a reflection of growing unease within Conservative ranks.
While few suggest Harper has the slightest intention of stepping down in the near future, there are some who believe that unless the economy falters, which might strengthen Harper’s electoral prospects, the Conservatives will see a diminished number of seats, resulting in no party with an outright majority.
A key factor in next year’s election, assuming Harper doesn’t try to call an early election, is how many current New Democratic seats in Quebec Trudeau’s Liberals can capture.
One consideration that could play a role in diminishing the electoral prospects of the Conservatives is the striking contrast between the public’s perception of the different approaches to politics taken by Harper and his two opponents, Trudeau and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair.
Even some traditional Conservative supporters, who normally can be counted on to automatically give the Conservatives about a third of the vote because Harper has astutely promoted issues that appeal to them, might think otherwise. They might consider Harper’s aggressive style and unwillingness to be open to the views of opposition parties no longer an approach that benefits Canada’s multifaceted society.
Harper has predictably attempted to portray Trudeau as a young man lacking experience and sound judgment. So far this tactic has failed to reduce Trudeau’s appeal.
And Harper has not helped his electoral prospects by his hardline rejection of federal government action to deal with the issue of the killings and disappearances of native women, which the provinces and opposition political parties have called for.
While the prime minister has defended his position by saying the problem is already being dealt with by the police, his unwavering opposition to any formal inquiry is contrary to widespread support within the Canadian population. Even former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney publicly questioned Harper’s intransigent opposition to any government inquiry. This lack of co-operation might come back to haunt the prime minister during the next election.
In fact, such frequent intransigence by the prime minister and its potentially negative political effect might help explain the growing tendency of many Conservative parliamentarians, such as Merrifield, to not seek re-election.
Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator.