Premier taking political risk

 

 
 
 

bringing down the toughest provincial budget in a generation, Christy Clark joins an exclusive group - Canadian premiers who risked political suicide to balance the books.

In the 1980s and '90s, Sterling Lyon in Manitoba, Saskatchewan's Roy Romanow, Mike Harris in Ontario and Ralph Klein in Alberta all laid political lives on the line to restore their province's finances.

Some, like Romanow and Klein, gained widespread admiration and ensured a string of future election victories for their party.

Others, Lyon perhaps, and Harris certainly, earned nothing but vituperation and an early exit from politics.

Yet an important reality separates B.C's premier from these others. They all faced imminent fiscal disaster if nothing was done. Clark does not.

Romanow in particular took office after years of deficits had brought his province to the brink of insolvency. And he had the added advantage that his own party was blameless. His political opponents were responsible for the mess.

The situation in B.C. is different. Though it would be irresponsible, the province could run deficits for several more years before hitting the wall. And if there has been mismanagement of the treasury, Clark's Liberals are to blame.

So just how tough is this budget? Health spending is being being held to less than half the cost-of-living index in that sector.

Education in kindergarten through Grade 12 gets effectively no increase, and universities will actually see their funding decline over three years. Indeed, in an unprecedented step, the finance minister has intruded on the independence of post-secondary institutions by demanding they achieve economies and telling them how to do it.

And across the government as a whole, 14 of 17 ministries are either being held flat or face a reduced budget.

On the revenue side, the government plans to raise $700 million by selling public properties such as liquorstore warehouses. Medical Services Plan premiums will rise by $5 a month for a family of three.

And although it may be just a head fake to disarm his critics, the finance minister is threatening to raise the corporate income tax rate if more money is needed next year.

To put this all in context, there has been much talk recently of the so-called Drummond Report - a study prepared earlier this month for the Ontario government. Economist Don Drummond recommended sweeping public-sector cuts that have shocked many in that province.

The new B.C. budget is every bit as unrelenting. So this is a colossal gamble on Clark's part. She's betting that, tough as her medicine is, the public will reward her for taking a stance.

The premier knows that public-sector unions and various interest groups will condemn her. And they haven't disappointed.

Noting that the budget called for administrative savings in the school sector, the president of the B.C. Teachers' Federation, Susan Lambert, told reporters, "I have no idea what that means."

But here is the political risk calculation. If Clark reaches her target and the budget is balanced next year, the heavy lifting will mostly be done. Assuming the economy recovers, there should be surpluses for some time to come. The premier is counting on that prospect to buoy her party in the provincial election next year.

But if it doesn't work - if the voters are angered by service cuts or fee increases - the result will be a political double whammy.

Not only will the Liberals lose, they will hand the incoming government a huge bonus. With the budget balanced and cuts already made, there will be clear sailing. There may even be money to spend.

That's the kind of scenario that political dynasties are built on. The problem is, it might be an NDP dynasty, not a Liberal one.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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