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World must plan for effects of climate change, researchers say

News that a large section of the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting and accelerating a rise in sea levels is a wake-up call to the effects of climate change, Victoria-based researchers say.
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This undated handout photo provided by NASA shows the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctic. Two new studies indicate that part of the huge West Antarctic ice sheet is starting a slow collapse in an unstoppable way. Alarmed scientists say that means even more sea level rise than they figured. (AP Photo/NASA)

News that a large section of the West Antarctic ice sheet is melting and accelerating a rise in sea levels is a wake-up call to the effects of climate change, Victoria-based researchers say.

“This just reinforces the importance of dealing with the issue of global warming,” said Tom Pedersen, executive director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions at the University of Victoria.

“We need to be thinking about this on the multi-decade scale and, if we are putting in infrastructure now, we need to consider the sea level is rising.”

Last week, two groups of American scientists reported that a large portion of the West Antarctic ice sheet appears to be breaking and melting into the ocean. This is due, in part, to global warming, caused by greenhouse gases released by humans, they say.

The melting of the ice sheet could cause sea levels to rise much faster than they already are. Renowned glaciologist Eric Rignot said in a NASA press conference the ice-sheet melt could raise sea levels by three metres in the coming centuries and its instability will contribute to rising sea levels for decades to come.

“With climate change we have warmer water, melting away the bottom of the ice sheet,” said Pedersen. Thermal expansion of water is a major cause of sea levels rising, he said.

While the global sea-level rise might seem slow, a few millimetres each year, “it’s actually more serious than we would think,” Pedersen said.

In 2012, sea-level rise amplified the devastating affects of flooding caused by Hurricane Sandy that resulted in billions of dollars damage in New York City, Pedersen said.

“Along the B.C. coastline, look at Delta. They are worried about farmland and the flats. It won’t take a lot for sea-level rise with a bad storm to affect them,” he said. “Sea-level rise is a reality. We have to face and adapt to it, plan for it.”

A 2011 study commissioned by the B.C. government recommended planning for sea-level rise and showed how it varies along the coast.

Places such as Richmond and Delta will see a quicker rise than Victoria, where the sea level is rising by 3.1 centimetres per 50 years, slower than the global rate. This is due in part to tectonic plates pushing the Island upwards. Tofino’s sea level is falling because of this.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions make the rate of rise in sea levels even more unpredictable, Pedersen said.

While the melting ice sheets are an irreversible problem, dealing with climate change is still crucial, he said. The UVic-based institute was recently awarded $474,000 in fellowships to research climate change solutions.

One recipient, Brian Starzomski from the School of Environmental Studies, will conduct experiments to predict catastrophic ecosystem changes caused by global warming before they happen.

“We have pretty good evidence Vancouver Island will be hit hard by loss of alpine habitat,” Starzomski said.

“We could lose habitat for birds and marmots but, on the flipside, we’ll have more forest.”

Robert Gifford, an environmental psychologist, will look at what barriers British Columbians face in making the right choices to tackle climate change and how this is influenced by their location, age, income and other social factors.

“Most people are on board with knowing climate change is happening,” Gifford said. But they don’t necessarily change their behaviour because of it, he added.

Everyday actions such as driving a car alone or having a meat-based diet can affect climate change, Gifford said.

He hopes his diagnostic study will persuade people of the seriousness of global warming and how their actions can affect generations to come.

spetrescu@timescolonist.com