British Columbians could be waiting a while yet to find out what their provincial government looks like, political experts say.
Now that the final count is complete and none of the parties has a majority in the 87-seat legislature, the future remains as murky as it did on election night.
Liberal Leader Christy Clark remains the premier and has signalled her intent to form a government with 43 seats, compared with 41 for the NDP and three for the B.C. Green Party.
The Greens, however, have the power to prop up a minority government led by either the Liberals or the NDP and remain in talks with both parties. Weaver hopes to announce by next Wednesday whether the Greens have reached a deal with anyone. But how things play out in the coming days and weeks remains a guessing game — even for the experts.
Hamish Telford, associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley, said Clark has the right to try to keep governing. “She’s the incumbent premier, she has the most seats,” he said. “I presume the lieutenant-governor will give her that opportunity.”
Telford said Clark will choose a cabinet, recall the legislature and introduce a throne speech to see if it has the confidence of the house.
“She’s going to have to lay out a throne speech that is sufficiently enticing to the other parties,” said Telford, adding she would be wise to appeal to the NDP as well as the Greens. “If I were her, I would be scouring the NDP platform to see what planks I could lift from it and include in the throne speech.”
The idea would be to put the NDP in the uncomfortable position of voting against policies — such as a ban on union and corporate political donations — that the party supports.
If the house votes to reject the throne speech, Clark would have to go back to Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon, Telford said. “[Clark] may suggest to the lieutenant-governor that the only way to solve this is another election. But the lieutenant-governor may or may not heed that advice, depending on the signals she’s received from the other parties.
“If the other parties have a concrete agreement to govern for a period of time, I think it’s likely she would ask them to form a government.”
That’s why Telford believes an NDP-Green alliance would have to work quickly to defeat the Liberals, because if they wait too long, it might trigger another election.
“I think if they want to do it they have to move immediately and defeat the government on the throne speech, then appeal to the lieutenant governor to give them the opportunity.
Norman Ruff, associate professor emeritus of political science at the University of Victoria, said the Greens and NDP appear to have more policies in common than the Liberals and Greens.
A Liberal-Green alliance, however, would be more stable, with 46 seats compared to a bare majority of 44 seats for a Green-NDP pact.
“The NDP-Green coalition would be very, very fragile,” Ruff said. “Every vote essentially would be a game of Russian roulette.”
He said Clark also could try to lead a minority government without any accord with the Greens, proceeding issue-by-issue.
“Now that is continuing to walk on a knife edge,” Ruff said. “She might well attempt to do that.”
The Liberals also have deeper pockets and might be more willing to trigger an election than the other two parties, Ruff said.
“So behind all the sense that it’s a matter of principle here and they’re trying to agree on policy, there may be a bit of a game of chicken being played here.”
No matter how it plays out, Telford expects any government will be short-lived.
“I really think the best-case scenario is that we get two budgets and we’re back to the polls this time next year.
“But it’s conceivable that we could be back at the polls in six months.”
