A telephone poll of three federal ridings on Vancouver Island shows the NDP in the lead, followed by the Conservatives.
The poll, being released today, was commissioned by the Dogwood Initiative, an environmental group that opposes oil tanker traffic on B.C.’s coast.
It was conducted in May by Insights West, a market-research company based in Vancouver and Calgary, which surveyed about 300 adult residents in each of four federal ridings. The fourth riding was Burnaby-North Seymour in the Lower Mainland.
Pollster Mario Canseco said it was interesting to conduct a poll in four “very, very different ridings” in an attempt to figure out the expectations of voters.
“I think a lot of people assumed this is only a three-way race. The Liberals are highly competitive in many [ridings, but] it’s not happening in any of these four,” Canseco said.
For the federal election, expected in the fall, 30 new ridings have been carved out of existing ridings, translating into seven additional seats for B.C., including one on Vancouver Island.
Kai Nagata, energy and democracy director for the Dogwood Initiative, said the environmental group decided to survey four new coastal community ridings in B.C.
In the redrawn federal riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, the poll shows the NDP leading at 42 per cent, the Conservatives at 14 per cent, closely followed by the Greens at 13 per cent and the Liberals at 12 per cent. Other parties account for three per cent and the undecideds are at 16 per cent.
Canseco said the representative for the current Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca riding, NDP MP Randall Garrison, must be doing something right.
“When you see the NDP at 42 per cent and the nearest rival at 14 per cent, it speaks to a connection with the riding,” Canseco said.
The margin of error is plus-or-minus 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, for each riding.
As well as Garrison, who is running for the NDP in the new riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, declared candidates include Conservative Shari Lukens, a former Colwood councillor; Frances Litman for the Greens, a photographer; and David Merner for the Liberals, a lawyer.
In the new Courtenay-Alberni riding, the poll shows the NDP at 33 per cent, the Conservatives at 23 per cent, the Liberals at 11 per cent and the Greens at nine per cent. Other parties account for two per cent and the undecided vote is 23 per cent.
Candidates running in Courtenay-Alberni include Conservative MP John Duncan, chief government whip since July 2013; Green Glenn Sollitt, Island territory manager for Norpac; Liberal Carrie Powell-Davidson, a two-term councillor in Parksville; and New Democrat Gord Johns, executive director of the Tofino-Long Beach Chamber of Commerce.
In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, the poll shows the NDP at 32 per cent, the Conservatives at 22 per cent, the Liberals at 12 per cent and the Greens at eight per cent. Those who said they would vote for another party account for four per cent and the undecideds are at 22 per cent.
In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, candidates include Green Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi, a former elected chief of the Quatsino First Nation; Liberal Maria Manna, a musician; and New Democrat Alistair MacGregor, constituency assistant for Nanaimo-Cowichan MP Jean Crowder, who is retiring. The Conservatives in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford have not nominated a candidate.
The percentage of undecided voters is high in all ridings — ranging from 16 per cent to 24 per cent — but that is not unexpected this far from the election date, Canseco said.
The poll also showed that in three of the four ridings surveyed, NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is the preferred choice for prime minister. The exception was Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, where Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is the favourite, even though a wide margin of those polled said they would vote for the NDP candidate in the riding.
That, Canseco said, again points to the strong connection the NDP’s Garrison has built there. “I think what is interesting at this point is [the level of support for the NDP in most of these ridings] is not only resonating because of the local candidate or the local issues, but also on the fact that they see Thomas Mulcair as the best choice for prime minister,” Canseco said. “They seem to be happy with both at this stage.”
When asked to agree or disagree with the statement “British Columbians would benefit from more oil tankers on the coast,” the majority of people surveyed in four federal ridings disagreed — 66 per cent in Burnaby-North Seymour, 65 per cent in Courtenay-Alberni, 64 per cent in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, and 59 per cent in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.
The poll results showed the majority of people surveyed in the ridings are concerned about climate change, oil tankers on the coast, and government surveillance, Nagata said.
The Insights West poll is based on a landline telephone poll conducted from May 8 to May 11.
The pollster talked to adult residents in the four ridings — 301 respondents in Courtenay-Alberni, 302 in the Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, 301 in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke and 301 in Burnaby-North Seymour.
The data was statistically weighted according to Canadian census figures for age, gender and region.
