With no incumbent, Esquimalt-Metchosin is being eyed by the Liberals and Greens as one of the key Island ridings up for grabs in the May 9 provincial election.
But making a breakthrough in the traditionally NDP stronghold will be no easy task. The last Liberal to win there was Arnie Hamilton who swept in on Gordon Campbell’s Liberal wave in 2001.
New Democrat Maurine Karagianis took the riding in 2005 with almost 50 per cent of the vote and has held it ever since, running roughly 20 percentage points ahead of the nearest Liberal challenger in 2009 and 2013.
> Candidate profiles and riding information for Esquimalt-Metchosin (LINK)
Liberal candidates took 30.2 per cent of the vote in 2009 and 28.6 per cent in 2013.
But the Greens have done well here, too. Former Green Party leader Jane Sterk pulled in 17 per cent of the vote in 2009. That increased to 21.7 per cent in 2013, when Green candidate Susan Low ran.
The riding encompasses Esquimalt, View Royal, Colwood, Highlands and Metchosin. Formerly known as Esquimalt Royal Roads, Esquimalt-Metchosin has slightly different boundaries than the former riding. Vic West has been dropped while Metchosin has been added.
With Karagianis retiring, the NDP banner is being carried by Pacific Centre Family Services Association executive director Mitzi Dean, a candidate who is well versed in social issues.
Affordability, she said, is the key issue in the riding, along with transit and health care.
“I know people who are turning off their hydro because they can’t afford to pay all the household bills, even though they are working really hard,” Dean said.
The Liberals have chosen Barb Desjardins, a three-term Esquimalt mayor and Capital Regional District chairwoman. Given her local government profile, she is seen as a star candidate.
Desjardins said the lack of an incumbent MLA puts all candidates on equal footing. She hopes her municipal experience will shine through “for those who may be undecided.”
“[I’ve got] 11 years municipal experience sitting at all of the tables around the region to help solve the problems that we’re hearing on the doorstep,” she said, adding that transportation is probably the key issue in the riding.
“I’ve already been there. I know many of the players. I know what’s been done before and I have some great ideas for going forward.”
Michael Prince, Lansdowne professor of social policy at the University of Victoria, said Desjardins’ notoriety and record as a local politician can cut both ways.
He noted that she was head of the CRD when, after years of getting nowhere, the province had to step in to appoint an independent board to implement a sewage treatment plan. Desjardins has also been at the helm as the CRD struggled to get buy-in from West Shore municipalities to create a regional transportation authority.
Running for the Greens is Andy MacKinnon, a semi-retired biologist and Metchosin councillor.
MacKinnon, buoyed by what he has been hearing on the doorsteps, said he remains optimistic. The Green’s fortunes improved with boundary changes that put all of Metchosin in the riding, he said. “It’s been a New Democratic Party riding for a long time so it’s certainly going to be an uphill battle, but certainly from what I hear on the doorstep I think there are some real opportunities here.”
Prince said the Greens are a long shot at best.
“When I look at Esquimalt-Metchosin and I look at the Greens voting history in the last couple of elections — Andy MacKinnon is a lovely man, but I’d be shocked if he wins,” Prince said.
Traditionally, the New Democrat vote is stronger in Esquimalt, while the Liberal vote is stronger in the West Shore. An improvement in the Green vote could come at the expense of the Liberals, Prince said.
“In the last election, the Greens came stronger in the polling stations in Esquimalt. The Liberals came third in Esquimalt in the polling stations,” Prince said.
“So I if Desjardins does well it would be, I think, as much at the expense of Green as it would Mitzi Dean and the NDP.”
Six candidates are seeking the seat: Dean, Desjardins, MacKinnon, independent candidate Delmar Martay, Libertarian Josh Steffler and Communist Tyson Riel Strandlund.
