The NDP has jumped in front of the B.C. Liberals with a double-digit percentage lead, according to a new poll, the first sizable gap between the two parties in the two-week-old election campaign.
But that finding isn’t enough to predict an NDP win in the May 9 election, said Quito Maggi, president of polling firm Mainstreet Research.
Over the last few days of campaigning the NDP appear to have surged, with 44 per cent support among decided voters, compared to 34 per cent for the Liberals. Green support is up slightly, to 22 per cent, a Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has found.
In Metro Vancouver, home to more than half of B.C.’s ridings, the NDP’s lead over the Liberals is even higher — at 16 points.
The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll was conducted April 20 to 22, just after the leaders’ radio debate last Thursday. Until then, support for the two parties had remained consistently close at roughly 39 per cent for the NDP and 37 per cent for the Liberals. The Greens have been around 19 to 21 per cent.
However, predicting the outcome of the election is impossible, Maggi said, because the gap between the three parties is more narrow in the rest of the province.
On Vancouver Island, the NDP and Greens are largely tied, with the Liberals 10 points behind. Outside the Island and Metro Vancouver, the Liberals and NDP are tied, with the Greens trailing.
“Even though the lead for the NDP has increased, we still see the Liberals [strong] in the rest of B.C., and we still know that among South Asians and among the Chinese population it breaks much more toward B.C. Liberals on economic policy. So we can’t discount those things, even with that size of the lead at this point,” Maggi said in an interview. “This one is going to be tough to call right to the end. … It seems to be a see-saw battle.”
Maggi said he’s stumped by what is behind this shift in voters’ attitudes.
No party has made a major mistake and the only big event that occurred — last week’s leaders’ debate on radio — was arguably won by B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark, he said.
Clark, premier for six years, is the most recognized among the leaders, but more people disapprove of her than approve, the poll found. NDP Leader John Horgan was not known by eight per cent of respondents, and his approval ratings are higher than Clark’s. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver is the least known of the three, but most liked.
“This time around the X factor is the Green Party because they’ve never been this high [in the polls],” Maggi said. Based on 22 per cent support, the Greens could win up to 10 seats or it could collapse if its backers jump to the NDP to offset a future Liberal upswing.
Mainstreet surveyed 1,650 British Columbians April 20 to 22; the margin of error is plus/minus 2.41 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
