Prices for fresh local seafood will rise dramatically as catches decline over the next few decades, according to a report by researchers at the University of B.C.
The price of sockeye salmon could rise by 70 per cent as the fishery is projected to decline by as much as 21 per cent by 2050 due to changes in water movement and chemistry of the oceans brought about by rising levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, according to Out of Stock, a report commissioned by Vancity. Prices for sockeye, chum, halibut, tuna and sablefish from B.C. waters are likely to rise the most. Statistics Canada data shows that retail fish prices have already increased 38 per cent over the past five years.
Using recent climate data, computer models project that seven of 10 top staple fish will decline in biomass over that period, said lead author Rashid Sumaila of UBC s Fisheries Economics Research Unit.
“We model scenarios based on carbon dioxide emissions and what effect that will have on temperature and ocean chemistry then we can predict what effect that will have on the biomass,” he said.
The model is constantly updated with the most recent climate and biomass data, so the researchers can calculate trends based on what is already happening in the environment.
“Each of these fishes has a range of temperatures where they feel comfortable,” he said. “As the fish chase cooler temperatures their normal (geographic) range changes or they perish.”
Economic models based on supply both in B.C. and from top trading partners and other market conditions project that B.C. families will spend between $30 million and $110 million more for seafood each year in 2050, in 2015 dollars.
The report recommends that all levels of government and citizens work to reduce CO2 emissions in order to prevent the most dire and potentially irreversible effects of climate change on marine ecosystems.
