Internal documents leaked from a B.C. bureaucrat’s e-mail suggest the government miscalculated the number of people expected to be on welfare by the year 2012 by about 28 per cent — a mistake that could lead to a $98-million budget shortfall, according to New Democratic critics.

“At present, B.C. [Employment and Assistance] caseload is expected to peak at 147,000 in June 2010,” states a document acquired from the Ministry of Housing and Social Development.

The new numbers are a marked contrast to provincial budget figures for 2009/10 to 2011/12, which project the social assistance caseload at 115,182 for the year 2010/11, and 111,510 for 2011/2012. The budget suggests that a one-per-cent change in the average caseload will affect spending by about $3.5 million annually. That translates to a $98-million shortfall.

Vancouver-Hastings MLA Shane Simpson said he questions how long the government had these numbers and accused the Liberals of trying to hide the figures from the public.

“They produced this document at the beginning of June. When did they know these numbers? When did they have this information prior to releasing it? Did they have this information in the middle of the election and choose not to release it? It may well be the case,” said Simpson, the NDP housing and social development critic.

Housing and Social Development Minister Rich Coleman didn’t discount the numbers, but said they represent not a shortfall but a budget “pressure.”

“We know the welfare lists have gone up, but we don’t cut people off because of a budget pressure.”

Coleman said he’s “not fussed” about the leak from within his staff. “It’s unfortunate that Shane decides to fearmonger among the public that needs the help the most . . . . We’re not going to cut social assistance and to suggest otherwise is socially irresponsible.”

mfhill@vancouversun.com