I read in the Globe and Mail a few days ago that Alberta Premier Alison Redford had unveiled her first provincial budget. To be accurate, her Finance Minister Ron Liepert had done the unveiling, but it was her smiling face on the Globe's front page under the headline - "Alberta bets on boom with bigspending budget" - to whom credit was given.

The story opened with a majestic drum-roll first paragraph announcing: "At a time when governments across Canada are tightening belts and looking for cuts, Alberta Premier Alison Redford is rolling out a budget filled with spending increases and forecasts of surpluses." Great stuff, I thought, a positive-thinking, upbeat premier with the immediate promise to oversee the pouring of "hundreds of millions more into education, health care and family services - without raising taxes or cutting a single department budget."

Then I read, tucked in as a last line to the list of all her dreams: "All this with a provincial election two months away." Amazing! A full honeypot budget to be followed a by a simple "take-it-or-leave-it" election campaign that leaves all opposing political parties only the Grinch role to play.

I am reminded of Dr. Laurence Peter's comment on political promises: "You can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time - and that is good enough to win an election." And I think, somewhat sadly, what is happening now in Alberta will be repeated in B.C. roughly a year from now when Premier Christy Clark will be revealing her budgeted list of electoral gifts for the people - if they re-elect her and a majority government a few weeks later on Tuesday, May 14, 2013.

She has already started to list the better and everbetter things to come throughout the present year, but it won't be until the spring session of the legislature in 2013 that the big budget truck, loaded with care packages for all, is trundled out with the slogan "elect us if you want these gifts, reject us if you don't." And we can be sure that whatever Clark offers to entice voters, New Democrat Adrian Dix will go one better in the run-up to the May vote.

(I haven't forgotten the Conservatives will have a role to play as a Liberal vote-spoiler, but can't see them as a serious challenger for the right to govern.)

I am not afraid to forecast that whether Clark is returned as premier or Dix replaces her next year, each will not hesitate to announce quick revisions to their pre-election promises once they have the keys to the kingdom and enough MLAs to back a revised budget for the 2013-2014 fiscal year. Clark could justify changing a budget she had endorsed just weeks earlier on the grounds that the economy had dramatically changed since then; Dix, with the obvious right and authority as a new government to bring in a new budget, could (and will) regrettably announce the Liberals had left behind such a financial shambles he had no choice but to delay many of his pre-election promises. His first budget - if he ever gets to introduce one - will be grey and grim, like all first budgets from a party used to opposing and now charged with governing.

The first 2013 post-election budget, Liberal or NDP, will be short on good news, heavy on the need to curb spending until things are brought under control. I shall not be surprised if Albertans witness a similar exercise if, as expected, Redford is still premier after their March-April campaign.

Readers with more than a passing interest in politics will know I am revealing nothing new here. I first observed the "budget cycle" as an election control mechanism when W.A.C. Bennett was in power, but it's probably been around forever. Year one of a new government - re-elected or brand new - calls for a hard-times budget, higher taxes and tariffs, the need for tight-belt spending. A second-year budget offers some relaxation, just a gentle benefits tweak - but not too much. The third year in office praises the people for suffering through tough times and announces funding for long-sought local programs. The fourth budget, brought down just weeks before an election, is accompanied by the Hallelujah Chorus joyfully assuring the people day one after the election will welcome Utopia. And a day or so later the cycle restarts.

Maybe Alberta and Redford will prove me wrong. Maybe a year from now Clark or Dix will surprise me. But I don't think so. The budget cycle will continue to rotate as it always has, and the electorate will curse and grumble but respond as obediently as always to the political version of Pavlov's bell.

jhume@shaw.ca