Sucker-punched New Democrats watched in muted horror at the Victoria Conference Centre Tuesday as a sure-thing election victory vanished before their eyes.
Premier Christy Clark defied polls, pundits and the prevailing wisdom and pulled off a win that upsets everything everybody thought they knew about B.C. politics.
South Island New Democrats went through the four stages of grief in the space of a few hours. They’ll take a while longer to get to the final stage — acceptance.
They literally refused to believe it at first, chatting casually through the sketchy early results that showed a sizable Liberal lead. Fragmentary results, some said. Liberal pockets getting counted first, they said. “I never pay attention to the early results,” said one.
>> ELECTION RESULTS MAP
>> MORE ELECTION STORIES
Forty-five minutes later, it was clear the shocking lead was not going away. The crowd was forced to confront the truth. An election that everyone assured them was in the bag had been snatched away.
The only applause from the few hundred people present came as newscasts started checking off South Island NDP MLAs as winners.
There was also a round of applause when NDP leader Adrian Dix was projected as a winner, although it was quieter than you’d expect. It raises the question: Did Dix blow the best chance the party has had in years?
There was a moment after he won the NDP leadership 25 months ago, when he was asked about the differences in style between him and Clark.
He was perceived at the time as a humourless, hard-left career party operative, while Clark — the Canuck “jersey girl” — was looking comfortable in the spotlight.
“I’m going to beat them on style as well,” he confidently replied.
His style evolved over the short two years he’s been leading the party. He put together a relatively moderate agenda and changed into a serious but relaxed leader (with a fanatical work ethic).
It looked like it was working, right up until election night, when the victory was snatched away from him.
The results bring home again a historical political fact. The free-enterprise coalition, whatever they call themselves over time owns the political landscape. The NDP has won only three elections in the 15 the party has contested since it was formed in 1960.
And it took just the right combination of circumstances for them to win each time. They need a collapsing opponent who is tired or discredited, and a reassuring or populist leader.
The Liberals looked like they were collapsing midway through a term of office that was nothing short of disastrous. The HST dominated the entire term and the Liberals lost every argument they started with that tax policy. But Clark took over in the spring of 2011 and it looks like the initial surge of rejuvenation that she brought with her returned in the final days of the campaign.
And it looks like in the matchup of leaders, Dix lost on points. He’ll never be a populist, but he did his best to be reassuring and moderate. It looks like people didn’t buy it.
He insisted on an idealistic campaign that stayed as positive as possible.
Bitter NDPers were acknowledging Tuesday that that approach simply doesn’t work.
Clark ran a chippy, negative campaign throughout, with personal assaults on Dix’s integrity. For better or worse, it appears to have worked.
They will have to confront another awkward realization — the NDP never wins on the economy. The party ran a campaign strong on social issues and the environment — their perennial favourite issues. But they were non-committal on economic issues, and those are the ones that appear to have counted.
