What a difference a few weeks makes. That’s how long it took for Argo to unseat Lincoln as best-picture frontrunner during the craziest Oscar race in years. It’s a fool’s game trying to predict the Oscar winner, but one we masochistic Oscar geeks just can’t resist. I subscribe to William Goldman’s classic theory: “In Hollywood, nobody knows anything.”

There are more movies in the running that audiences have actually seen than in recent memory, so it should be an exciting Sunday (5:30 p.m. on CTV and ABC). With so many pictures earning nominations across several categories, split votes almost ensure Oscar will be spreading the wealth.

Best picture

This was Lincoln’s to lose, but despite a leading 12 nominations, impressive technical credits and its positive outcome — passage of the 13th Amendment abolishing slavery in the U.S. — Steven Spielberg’s talky historical drama is no longer a sure thing. Argo has gained too much momentum, with a mittful of precursor awards nods propelling it from underdog to frontrunner, almost as if in response to Ben Affleck’s snub by the director’s branch. Smart, funny and lucrative, Affleck’s Iran- hostage drama is also a true-life tale that, like last year’s winner The Artist, journeys inside Hollywood, always a good thing. If Argo takes the top prize, it would join Bruce Beresford’s 1989 Driving Miss Daisy, one of only three films that have done so without also winning best director. The wild card is Silver Linings Playbook, which could be rewarded through a split vote — especially with Harvey Weinstein’s Midas touch. David O. Russell’s character-driven drama also intelligently demystifies mental illness, a hot topic right now. Michael Haneke’s French-language gem Amour will speak to elderly Oscar voters, but it hasn’t reached a wide audience, so being voted best foreign-language film is a no-brainer. While voters have honoured exotic fare before (Slumdog Millionaire), the most beautiful nominee — Life of Pi — will have to settle for technical honours. Other also-rans: Beasts of the Southern Wild, seen by too few; Django Unchained, brilliant but presumably too extreme for many voters; Les Miserables, which fell short of expectations; and Zero Dark Thirty, scarred by controversy. The omission of both those films’ directors in that category — Tom Hooper and Kathryn Bigelow — speaks volumes.

Best director

This race is wide open. While Spielberg isn’t a lock, he has an edge. It would honour Lincoln in a year conventional wisdom seems destined to be defied. Best picture, assuming it’s Argo, also won’t get a directorial nod, since Affleck’s out of the running. It’s been 14 years since Spielberg won for Saving Private Ryan, and despite residual resentment, his craftsmanship can’t be denied. The real star of Lincoln is Daniel Day-Lewis, however, so his inevitable award could allow Ang Lee to win for his visionary approach to Life of Pi, miraculously imbuing a work regarded as unfilmable with visual beauty and intellectual depth. Despite Haneke’s remarkably precise helming of Amour, he won’t take it for a foreign film. First-timer Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) still has more dues to pay. Don’t discount the possibility voters will show Playbook some love here by choosing David O. Russell, although he’s more likely to be honoured with best adapted screenplay.

Best actor

Day-Lewis’s inauguration for his jaw-dropping portrayal of America’s 16th president in Lincoln is a slam dunk. A tip of the stovepipe hat to the two-time winner (My Left Foot and There Will Be Blood) who swept the pre-Oscar awards for miraculously disappearing into his role. He’ll join an elite club of Oscar winners who have played real people, including Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) and Colin Firth (The King’s Speech). Bradley Cooper stretched admirably as the bipolar protagonist in Playbook, but look at the competition. A similar fate awaits six-time nominee Denzel Washington, who deserves the statuette for his richly textured portrayal of the troubled alcoholic pilot in Flight. Joaquin Phoenix was brilliant as the chillingly unhinged disciple in The Master, but his anti-awards diatribes hurt his chances. Hugh Jackman’s an also-ran.

Best actress

In the most hotly contested category, the smart money’s on Jennifer Lawrence for the raw emotion, physicality and vulnerability she invested in her role as the resilient, wise-beyond-her-years young widow in Playbook. It would reward her for the blockbuster success of The Hunger Games. Lawrence, 22, would become the second-youngest winner since Marlee Matlin, who was 21 when anointed for Children of a Lesser God (1987). Closest rival Jessica Chastain won’t get it, despite a Golden Globe win for three hours of grimacing as the watchful CIA operative in Zero Dark Thirty, which received just five nominations and has seen its Oscar buzz evaporate. The sentimental choice is Emmanuelle Riva, 85, for her heart-wrenching turn as the stroke-stricken retired music teacher in the twilight romance Amour, which would make her the oldest Oscar-winning actress. Charming newcomer Quvenzhane Wallis, 9, would be the youngest if she wins for Beasts, but that’s a long shot. Naomi Watts was superb as the tsunami survivor in The Impossible, but the film received no other nominations.

Best supporting actor

It’s a seniors showdown between seven-time nominee Robert De Niro, 69, who should take home his first Oscar since 1980’s Raging Bull for his droll, unexpectedly moving performance as the obsessive Philadelphia Eagles fan in Playbook, and Tommy Lee Jones, 66. As prickly as a cactus in real life, the actor already won a Screen Actors Guild award for so brilliantly mining this to play curmudgeonly abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln. I’m rooting for DeNiro, hoping he’ll become more choosy and stop doing crap like Meet the Fokkers. Hoffman was terrific as the manipulative cult leader in The Master, but that film isn’t feeling the love. Christoph Waltz, who won a Golden Globe and BAFTA award for his colourful performance as the charismatic bounty hunter in Django Unchained, is the dark horse. While Alan Arkin’s shady producer in Argo was a great Hollywood in-joke, this beloved Oscar-winner (for 2006’s Little Miss Sunshine) will have to be content with the nomination.

Best supporting actress

She lost 25 pounds, shaved her head and swept the pre-Oscar awards for moving Les Miserables fans to tears during her brief, deeply affecting appearance as ill-fated prostitute Fantine. Even if Anne Hathaway’s second nomination (after 2009’s Rachel Getting Married) was based on her passionate rendition of I Dreamed a Dream, why shouldn’t Hollywood’s darling-du-jour win? Anything to avoid another gushing Oscar acceptance speech from Places in the Heart winner Sally “You really like me!” Field if, heaven help us, she wins for her showy, overrated performance as the 19th-century first lady in Lincoln. Australian actress Jacki Weaver’s reward will have to be getting the nomination she deserved more for her performance as the protective mob-family matriach in 2010’s Animal Kingdom. Helen Hunt most deserves this award for her fearless performance as the compassionate sex surrogate in The Sessions, but it inexplicably got only one nomination. Four-time nominee Amy Adams stands even less of a chance for her fine work as Hoffman’s controlling wife in The Master.

And the winners are:

BEST PICTURE

Will win: Argo

Should win: Argo

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Steven Spielberg

Should win: Ang Lee

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Should win: Denzel Washington

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence

Should win: Emmanuelle Riva

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Robert De Niro

Should win: Robert De Niro

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Anne Hathaway

Should win: Helen Hunt

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