A four-member panel told the 67th Truck Loggers Association conference yesterday the new face of British Columbia's forest industry is pointed at China.

Provincial Forests Minister Pat Bell pointed out that the Chinese break down the word crisis into two symbols -- opportunity and danger.

"And that's very much what we see with the current crisis in the forest industry, there's very real danger and significant opportunity," Bell said.

The minister said developing markets in China will eventually ease the dependence on the U.S. marketplace.

"[China has] embraced wood-frame construction, they've embraced the notion of building with wood and they love dealing with British Columbians," Bell said.

The stumbling block will be convincing China they can count on a steady flow of fibre from the province.

"They want to know that they can count on us as a source of supply regardless of whether or not the Americans come back into the marketplace," he said. "I think we should serve that market and find ways to build strong relationships to make sure the Chinese know we will be there today, tomorrow and the day after and in 2011, 2012 and more importantly 2013."

Bell brought up 2013 because that marks the expiration date of the softwood lumber agreement with the U.S.

"Wouldn't you like to be in a place where you have another major market that is consuming as much product as the Americans when you go into that negotiation?" he said.

China still has a long way to go, as it's estimated in 2009 the U.S. will have imported 7.45 billion board feet from B.C. in a brutal year. That's just over half of what was shipped to the U.S. in 2007.

But as a new market, China has grown significantly in recent years.

By the end of November, the province estimated it was on pace to deliver 1.6 billion board feet of lumber to China in 2009, more than double the 720 million board feet exported in 2008.

"Four billion board feet by 2011 is a very realistic objective, and add Japan to the mix and very quickly Asia becomes very competitive with the production going into the U.S.," said Bell. "That's the new vision of forestry and the new face of forestry."

One of the measures that could be used to expand the Chinese market is increased raw log exports to that country.

During an analysis of the current market trends, International Wood Market Group president Russell Taylor told the convention some jurisdictions have managed to expand markets for their lumber by increasing raw-log exports.

Taylor said that by doing that the market gets a chance to work with the wood.

"They get to know about their qualities, species and grades, and that can improve opportunities for looking at lumber products down the road," he said. "The theory is log exports can speed that up."

It would also help an ailing B.C. forest industry right now, said Dave Lewis, executive director of the TLA.

"We are not harvesting because local mills cannot afford to operate due to the lower prices that they receive for our lumber. At the same time we prevent foreign buyers from enabling a harvest by restricting sales and adding unnecessary fees," he said. "If log-export restrictions were eased and the fees that are charged on them were lowered, not only would we see an immediate increase in jobs on the coast, we could begin to develop markets for our lumber and increase the prices that we get for that lumber."

Avrim Lazar, president and CEO of the Forest Products Association of Canada, told the convention Canada may be considered the old face of forestry, but it is also very much the emerging new face of the industry.

He noted steps the industry has taken to deal with environmental pressures while diversifying its products and working to maximize the value extracted from logs have made Canada a world leader at the right time.

Lazar noted that in the next 20 years the global population is expected to increase by an estimated 1.5 billion people while disposable income is also expected to increase significantly -- factors that increase demand for forest products.

"There's lots of market out there, and a squeeze on the fibre supply," he said. "What's out there is a huge opportunity and the kinds of brains and ingenuity and hard work that got us here is going to let us make out like pirates in the future."

aduffy@tc.canwest.com