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Rise in Victoria home building reflects strengthening economy: experts

Continued steady building of single-family homes in Greater Victoria is a good sign the economy is on solid ground and employment for young people is improving, according to an industry expert.
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Workers continue construction on a house at the corner of Linden and Oxford streets in Fairfield. CMHC's monthly housing starts report, released Monday, found that there have been 310 single-family homes built in Greater Victoria so far this year, up from 273 built during the first seven months of 2013.

Continued steady building of single-family homes in Greater Victoria is a good sign the economy is on solid ground and employment for young people is improving, according to an industry expert.

Casey Edge, executive director of the Victoria Residential Builders Association, said new data from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation suggests the new housing market is steadily improving.

“We’re seeing an increase in the number of single-family homes — that’s the canary in the coal mine for us, a healthy single-family home market is good news,” he said.

CMHC’s monthly housing starts report, released Monday, found 50 single-family homes built in the region in July compared to 43 in July 2013. So far this year, there have been 310 built, up from 273 through the first seven months of last year.

“The people who drove this economy for the past 40 years were baby boomers buying homes and cars and they are heading into or are in retirement mode. Now, it will be driven by the millennials — they will be the next engine and they need to have good paying jobs to do that,” Edge said.

“When we see single-family housing starts begin to increase that is a reflection of that demographic securing those good paying jobs. “This is really about employment to a large degree, and more starts is a reflection of a stronger overall economy.”

The start numbers suggest Victoria remains in “recovery mode,” but Edge said the indications are for continued improvement.

He said a strong market would be in the range of 700 to 800 single-family home starts in a given year. Right now, the estimate is for between 500 and 600 started this year.

Overall, there have been 663 starts, including multi-family construction starts, through the first seven months this year, down slightly from the 670 registered at this point in 2013.

There were 17 multi-units started in the region last month, compared with 51 at the same time last year.

Langford again leads the way this year with 264 total starts, while 85 homes have been started in Colwood and 69 in Saanich.

To date, Victoria has seen just 19 starts, well off the 165 through the first seven months of 2013 when a number of multi-family projects broke ground.

“The trend in construction activity in both the single-detached and multiples housing segments maintained a steady pace in July, reflecting a balanced supply of new and resale homes,” said Eric Bond, CMHC’s senior market analyst.

The corporation’s “trend” measure, which noted Greater Victoria was trending at 1,200 units in July compared with 1,217 in June, is a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate and is designed to give a complete picture of the state of the housing market.

aduffy@timescolonist.com