Greater Victoria has plenty of reason to be economically optimistic, and doesn’t appear to have much cause to fear a recession, according to a panel of real estate experts who weighed in on what the city has to look forward to in 2016.
“One of the virtues of Victoria is its comparative stability compared to other regions of the country,” Robert Jawl of Jawl Properties told an Urban Development Institute luncheon Tuesday.
Jawl said in the face of prevailing forces that have given rise to talk of another recession — weakness in the energy sector and low commodity prices — Victoria remains somewhat insulated as it’s not directly exposed. “Meanwhile, there are macroeconomic forces that are helping,” he said, noting a weak dollar has been a boon to the tourism industry, which has led to re-investment in tourism infrastructure such as hotels and new transportation services, while the tech sector has strong growth.
Jawl and Jayne Bradbury of Fort Properties, who sat on Tuesday’s discussion panel looking ahead at the real estate market in 2016, said the stability offered by being a government city has also helped.
Bradbury said that government job security and the tech sector, which is also reaping the benefit of a weak Canadian dollar, should allow the local economy to continue to grow.
“Most of the core economies of Victoria are showing strength right now — stability at worst and strength in some cases,” said Jawl.
The result for the real estate industry seems to be another strong year ahead. Guy Crozier, president of the Victoria Real Estate Board, said a strong 2015 will continue this year as Victoria is “starting to shine on a global stage” and is no longer a place where “old people go to visit their parents.”
“It’s safe to say everything [is selling] in our market these days,” Crozier said, noting last year the board saw a 24 per cent increase in total sales. “Our biggest concern is inventory.”
Jawl, whose company has major developments coming out of the ground downtown and in James Bay, said the office real estate market is also fairly robust, driven by liquid capital markets and low borrowing rates.
He said there is diverse demand from institutional investors looking for high-end properties and private and local buyers looking at Class B and C space. “It doesn’t appear the demand for product will abate,” he said. “What the market is challenged to do is meet the interest with the availability of product for sale.”
An imbalance at this point, he said, has led to increased prices.
Bradbury said there hasn’t been much action in the retail real estate market with few deals done, though there have been a number of transactions as a result of federal immigration programs. She also noted as more people take up residence downtown, there will be an increase in retailers serving the core.
Sage Berryman, chief operating officer at Ralmax, said the industrial real estate market has been active though it’s also very competitive given the number of players. However, she said there is a lot of optimism for 2016. She said Ralmax is being somewhat cautious in its approach in order to ensure their growth is sustainable.
“We are investing a large amount of capital into the business,” she said, noting that’s a reflection of a supportive marketplace.
Ralmax, she said, intends to grow via investment in new capital projects and continued acquisition.
