When General Motors filed for bankruptcy protection in June, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said it was unlikely the federal government would recover the billions in taxpayers' money invested in the company.

Nearly six months since the biggest corporate bailout in recent Canadian history, that statement appears to be holding true.

In return for the combined $9.5 billion they invested in the company, the federal and Ontario governments will share an 11.7 per cent stake in GM once it emerges from bankruptcy protection. (All figures are in U.S. dollars.)

To recoup that money for taxpayers, a restructured GM would have to command a stock-market value of $67 billion, more than the company was ever worth in its heyday, according to a Canwest News Service analysis of figures provided by Industry Canada. At its peak in 2000, GM had a market capitalization of $57 billion.

It's not out of the realm of possibility that a leaner GM eventually could become a more valuable company than its predecessor.

Under the company's restructuring plan, GM has cut its number of brands in half, leaving it with four core brands: Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac. The company has also shed more than $40 billion in debt from its balance sheet, while cutting labour costs to bring them more in line with those of Japanese automakers such as Toyota.

A financial advisory firm retained during the bankruptcy process, Evercore Group, estimated that GM could be worth between $59 billion and $77 billion in 2012.

"They've made a lot of moves in the right direction," said Chris Piper, an associate professor at the University of Western Ontario's Richard Ivey School of Business. "You can't underestimate the change in the labour relationships, in terms of the cost to make a vehicle. That's huge."

Earlier this month, GM scuttled plans to sell its European unit Opel, a move that infuriated the German and Russian governments but was seen by some analysts as a sign of the automaker's renewed financial strength.

All of which has led to talk in some quarters that GM could refloat its shares in an initial public offering as early as next year, a goal that U.S. Treasury officials have publicly discussed. "The government of Canada intends to exit its financial position in GM as quickly as is appropriate in order to ensure the greatest return for Canadian taxpayers," Industry Canada spokesman Michel Cimpaye said yesterday in an e-mail.

But analysts note the company faces a host of daunting challenges, including the fact that it is still losing money. Veteran auto analyst Dennis DesRosiers noted that GM has continued to lose ground in Canada, where its market share has fallen so far this year by more than four percentage points, to 17.5 per cent.

"A GM IPO is not likely to be viable unless they stop losing market share," said DesRosiers. "Quite honestly, there's no sign they can stop their market-share losses."

The Canwest News Service analysis was based on methodology used by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, the U.S. Congress budget watchdog, in a report earlier this month. The GAO also said GM would have to reach a market value of $67 billion for the U.S. government to recover its investment.