VANCOUVER — The 2009 B.C. deficit could be up to four times larger than the government has stated, some economic forecasters are predicting. But Finance Minister Colin Hansen said the government is still eyeing the same target.

The province tabled a budget with a $495-million deficit in February. It was a commitment Premier Gordon Campbell repeated throughout the election campaign: “I can tell you this: the deficit for 2009-10 will be $495 million, maximum,” he said.

But Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, suggested B.C.’s deficit would likely be in the neighbourhood of $1.5 billion. Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of policy for the B.C. Business Council, said it could go as high as $2 billion.

“I could easily foresee a deficit of that magnitude,” added Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for the Bank of Montreal.

The Vancouver Sun surveyed eight of the 12 members on the council of economic forecasters, which advises the provincial government in its budget predictions, as to the state of the B.C. economy. Many panelists predicted Hansen would soon follow the lead of federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who admitted Tuesday that the federal deficit will exceed $50 billion this year.

“I think what you’ll find [is] an admission similar to what we heard from federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty yesterday: Relative to budget, the economic environment is worse, and the fiscal projections are at risk,” said Warren Lovely, a senior economist with CIBC.

But Hansen said it is too early to forecast exactly how much of a deficit the province will run. In an interview Tuesday, he said the government is still targeting the $495 million figure, but backed significantly away from offering the same iron-clad guarantee.

He did say that $495 million or less “is still our objective.”

“I want to make sure the budget accurately reflects what we know at the time,” Hansen added, saying the government firms up its numbers in the two weeks prior to the tabling of a budget.

“It’s not going to be identical, but I fully expect it will be similar to the budget we tabled in February,” he said, adding that he did not think it appropriate for a finance minister to offer any promises or firm predictions before a budget is tabled.

New Democratic Party finance critic Bruce Ralston said Monday he thinks Hansen is trying to lay the groundwork for a bigger deficit.

“Hansen is beginning the long trek to move to a new position,” said Ralston.

“I think he’s starting to waffle and I think it’s clear the $495 million isn’t going to happen.”

Declining natural gas prices may be partly to blame.

“The budget predicted natural gas prices averaging $5.96 US per million British thermal units, and current prices are a little over $3, so they’re down almost half,” Finlayson said. “That alone is several hundred million dollars of lost revenue right there.”

B.C. has also been hurt by a dried-up housing market and decreasing wood exports.

“The auto sector gains tremendous attention, but in B.C., the forest products sector has been squeezed so much by the downturn in U.S. housing starts,” said Scotiabank senior economist Mary Webb. “Forest products in B.C.’s export profile are virtually as important as autos are in Ontario’s profile.”

The government has 90 days after naming a new cabinet to introduce a new budget, meaning the revised budget numbers might not be available until September.

There could even be a deficit for 2008-09 once all the numbers are in, said Pastrick. Last year’s budget called for a $50 million surplus.

“That too could be in jeopardy, since the fiscal year ends March 31, and the recession really hit in the first quarter of this year,” he said.

dkarp@vancouversun.com

jfowlie@vancouversun.com